Trump Promised Bitcoin Boom — But His First 100 Days in Office Tell A Scary Story

Donald Trump promised a booming economy — and by extension, a Bitcoin (BTC) surge — when he returned to the White House in January 2025. Instead, the cryptocurrency has stumbled into one of its worst-ever performances after a presidential inauguration.

Bitcoin Drops 15% in Trump’s First 100 Days in Office

Bitcoin has fallen more than 15%, trading around $95,200 as of April 28, almost 100 days after Trump’s second term began on Jan. 20.

The cryptocurrency’s downside marks a stark reversal from the historical pattern observed during Trump’s first term and Joe Biden’s early presidency, when Bitcoin surged more than 50% in their first 100 days.

In early 2017, Bitcoin gained roughly 52% during Trump’s initial months, fueled by deregulation hopes and booming risk sentiment. Under Biden in 2021, the cryptocurrency exploded by over 61%, thanks to historic stimulus measures and unprecedented institutional adoption.

But Trump’s second term has delivered whiplash instead of growth. His aggressive tariff policies, including sweeping levies on global trade partners announced in early April, have rattled financial markets and sent risk assets like Bitcoin tumbling.

Meanwhile, rising fears of a global recession and extreme stock market volatility — the S&P 500 is tracking its worst first 100-day performance since 1974 — have dragged crypto prices lower alongside equities.

Tariff War Has Overshadowed Bullish Bitcoin Treasury Buzz

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. The reserve initially consists of about 200,000 BTC seized by the government, positioning Bitcoin as a national reserve asset for the first time in U.S. history.

The executive order also authorized the Treasury and Commerce Departments to explore “budget-neutral” methods to acquire even more Bitcoin. Potential methods include reallocating tariff revenues or revaluing existing gold certificates to fund further Bitcoin purchases without imposing additional costs on taxpayers.

In theory, these moves could have fueled strong bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. However, the bullish buzz surrounding Trump’s Bitcoin strategy has been overshadowed by the immediate fallout from his aggressive trade policies.

Traders have been scrambling to price the economic risks of a global slowdown.

Moreover, concerns about volatility and potential conflicts of interest continue to cloud sentiment, given Trump’s investments in crypto assets via his Defi platform World Liberty Finance (WLFI).

For now, Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plans remain a longer-term story. The short-term market focuses on tariffs, recession risks, and financial instability.

Almost 90% of Bitcoin Entities Are Making Profits

Bitcoin’s current rally may be approaching dangerous territory.

New data from Glassnode shows that over 90% of Bitcoin entities are in profit as of late April 2025. This metric, which measures the percentage of wallet clusters holding Bitcoin above their cost basis, has historically signaled major market tops when crossing into the 90%–95% range.

The pattern has repeated consistently over the past decade. In late 2013 and again in late 2017, profitability spiked above 95% shortly before Bitcoin entered bear markets with more than 80% declines.

A similar dynamic played out in 2021, when Bitcoin’s profitability levels triggered two sharp corrections — first in May and then after its November peak.

The setup appears similar today. With almost every Bitcoin holder in profit, the incentive to cash out rises sharply, while the pool of willing new buyers shrinks. Historically, this imbalance has preceded sharp price pullbacks as early investors move to lock in gains.

Now, with added pressure from President Trump’s trade policies and financial market instability, Bitcoin’s overheated profit margins could face a major stress test.