U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Could Be in Early Stages of Consolidation or Base-Building

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against a basket of major currencies as we near the end of an extremely volatile trading session. Early in the day, the greenback fell to its lowest level in nearly three years on Wednesday, with traders anticipating a Democrat win in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia that would clear the path for a larger fiscal stimulus package.

At 21:57 GMT, March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 89.390, down 0.019 or -0.02%.

After a fall of nearly 7% in 2020 and dropping as much as 0.9% in the new year, the dollar turned higher as a crowded trade began to unwind. However, the move was fueled by short-covering and not real buying so it began to fail. Late in the session, the index turned lower for the day.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out the previous day’s low. The main trend will change to up when buyers take out the last main top at 92.730. This is nearly impossible, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the index is vulnerable to a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 89.965 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The first minor range is 89.965 to 89.165. Its 50% level at 89.565 is potential resistance.

The second minor range is 91.150 to 89.165. Its 50% level at 90.160 is another potential resistance level.

Short-Term Outlook

On Wednesday, the index briefly took out the April 17, 2018 main bottom at 89.230, hitting 89.165 before turning higher for the session.

Also on Wednesday, the index straddled the minor pivot at 89.565. This level is controlling the minor direction.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 89.565 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of 89.165. If it fails, the break could extend into the March 27, 2018 main bottom at 88.940. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the February 16, 2018 main bottom at 88.250.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 89.565 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor top at 89.965, followed by the 50% level at 90.160.

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