US Dollar Forecast: Jobs Data Push DXY Higher, Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Gains on Jobs Data, Gold Holds Steady

The US Dollar strengthened on Friday after strong labor market data, with Non-Farm Employment Change surpassing forecasts at 227K (vs. 218K expected). The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% but remained steady with positive job growth.

Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 74.0, signaling improved optimism, while inflation expectations edged up to 2.9%. Gold prices held steady near $2,644 as mixed economic data balanced safe-haven demand.

While strong US data supported the dollar, inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy uncertainties continue to underpin gold’s appeal. Investors now look ahead to Monday’s Final Wholesale Inventories m/m data for additional market cues.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.03, up 0.06%, just below its pivot point at $106.11. The 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA both align at $106.11, creating a key resistance level. A downward trendline near this pivot adds further pressure, keeping the index in a cautious range.

Immediate resistance lies at $106.40, with further targets at $106.69 and $106.92 if bullish momentum builds. On the downside, support is seen at $105.96, followed by $105.74 and $105.42.

The index remains bearish below $106.11, but a breakout above this level could shift sentiment toward a more bullish outlook.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.21, up 0.41%, holding above its pivot point at $2,638.08. The 50-day EMA at $2,641.04 supports a short-term bullish outlook, while the 200-day EMA at $2,646.06 suggests momentum may continue if prices remain above these levels.

Immediate resistance is at $2,656.43, with further levels at $2,666.24 and $2,676.34. On the downside, key support stands at $2,627.23, with additional levels at $2,615.59 and $2,605.22.

GBP Rises on Housing Data, Ramsden Speech Ahead

The British Pound gained support after Halifax HPI m/m surged by 1.3% in November, exceeding the 0.3% forecast and the previous 0.2%. The unexpected growth in housing prices indicates resilience in the UK property market amid economic uncertainties.

Traders now focus on MPC Member Ramsden’s speech on Monday, where he will address UK financial stability at the Economic and Monetary Policy Institute in London, which may offer further insight into the Bank of England’s policy stance.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.27496, up 0.14%, holding firm above its pivot point at $1.27173, supported by an upward trendline. The 50-day EMA at $1.27202 and 200-day EMA at $1.27066 reinforce a short-term bullish bias. Immediate resistance is at $1.27549, with higher targets at $1.27738 and $1.28104 if momentum continues.

On the downside, support is seen at $1.26929, followed by $1.26618 and $1.26297. The pair’s outlook remains bullish as long as it stays above $1.27173, but a break below this level could lead to a sharp sell-off.

Euro Weakens on Poor Data, Eurogroup Meetings Ahead

The Euro faced pressure on Friday as German industrial production fell by 1.0% in October, missing the 1.0% forecast. French trade deficit narrowed slightly to €-7.7B, while Italian retail sales declined by 0.5%, undershooting expectations of a 0.9% increase.

Meanwhile, revised GDP and employment data remained steady at 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Attention now shifts to Monday’s Sentix Investor Confidence and Eurogroup Meetings, where financial policies and eurozone stability will be key topics.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.05564, down 1.10%, testing key support near its pivot point at $1.05477. The 50-day EMA at $1.05460 reinforces short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $1.05622 caps upside momentum.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.05754, with higher targets at $1.06067 and $1.06295 if the pair recovers.

On the downside, support is critical at $1.05039, with further levels at $1.04803 and $1.04570. Holding above $1.05477 could spark a bullish move, but a break below this level risks sharper declines.