US Dollar Forecast: Steady Ahead of JOLTS Report, Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Gold Holds Steady; USD Rises Amid PMI, JOLTS Data

The U.S. Dollar gained strength on Monday as manufacturing data painted a mixed picture. The ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.4 from 46.5, signaling a slower contraction, while ISM Prices slipped to 50.3, reflecting easing inflation pressures.

Meanwhile, Gold remained steady, trading near $2,645 as traders weighed the impact of U.S. economic data on rate hike expectations. Key events ahead include JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 7.51M) and RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism data, expected at 54.1.

These could influence USD’s trajectory further, while Gold’s direction hinges on upcoming economic releases and demand outlook.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering at $106.38, slightly down by 0.01%, but it remains perched above the key pivot point at $106.37. This level is crucial—staying above it could maintain the buying momentum, with immediate resistance at $106.67 and further targets at $106.92 and $107.15.

On the downside, key support levels include $106.13 and $105.87. The 50-day EMA at $106.33 provides near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $106.39 underscores the importance of this range.

The index is trading within an upward channel, suggesting the potential for a continuation of the bullish trend. However, a dip below $106.37 could signal a shift toward sharper selling.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,645.51, up 0.26%, holding above its pivot at $2,635.63. Immediate resistance is $2,652.11, followed by $2,666.24, while support lies at $2,621.06.

The 50-day EMA at $2,643.21 provides near-term backing, with the 200-day EMA at $2,648.63 acting as potential resistance.

A breakout above $2,652.11 could fuel bullish momentum, while a dip below $2,635.63 risks reversal, highlighting a pivotal trading juncture.

Sterling Slips as Retail Sales Disappoint

The British Pound faced pressure as economic data painted a mixed picture. The Nationwide HPI rose by 1.2% in November, beating the 0.2% forecast, signaling strength in the housing market.

However, the Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, below the forecast of 48.6, indicating continued contraction in the sector.

Additionally, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y dropped by 3.4%, far below the expected 0.7%, highlighting weak consumer activity. No significant events are scheduled ahead.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.26640, up 0.12%, showing a slight bullish tilt as it holds above the pivot point at $1.26443. Immediate resistance lies at $1.26916, with further targets at $1.27235 and $1.27500.

On the downside, key support levels to watch are $1.26179 and $1.25887. The pair is supported by an upward trendline, with the 50-day EMA at $1.26683 reinforcing near-term strength.

Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $1.26571 serves as a critical foundation for maintaining upward momentum.  If prices remain above $1.26443, buyers could push toward the next resistance levels.

Euro Pressured Amid Weak Manufacturing Data

The Euro faced headwinds as manufacturing data across the Eurozone disappointed. Spain’s Manufacturing PMI dipped to 53.1 from 53.9, while Italy (44.5), France (43.1), and Germany (43.0) reported weaker-than-expected activity, all pointing to persistent contraction.

The bloc’s Final Manufacturing PMI held at 45.2, signaling ongoing economic challenges.

However, Italy’s unemployment rate improved to 5.8% from 6.0%. Markets now await Spanish unemployment data and France’s government budget balance for further direction.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.05046, up 0.07% for the session, holding just above its pivot point at $1.05012. This level is crucial as staying above it keeps the bulls in control. Immediate resistance stands at $1.05233, with stronger barriers at $1.05457 and $1.05708.

On the downside, key support levels include $1.04637 and $1.04432. The 50-day EMA at $1.05139 provides short-term guidance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.05299 caps further upside for now.

A breakout above $1.05233 could open the door to bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.05012 risks sparking sharper selling.