The U.S. dollar drops 0.4% ending its streak, while BOJ hints at leaving negative rates, and China's yuan shows signs of central bank unease.
The U.S. dollar index has reversed course, slipping 0.4% to 104.62 after consecutively gaining for eight weeks. This decline comes in anticipation of this week’s crucial U.S. inflation reading. Despite this, experts believe that robust U.S. economic data might prompt the greenback to reclaim its strength soon.
Reacting to the dollar’s dip, Sterling and the euro rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Meanwhile, the Aussie and New Zealand dollar, acting as proxies for the Chinese yuan, also saw growths of 0.78% and 0.53% respectively. These currencies benefited from the yuan’s strength.
The Japanese yen, after remarks from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, bolstered hopes for Japan shifting away from its negative rates policy. With the yen soaring 0.9%, Ueda’s statement about possibly ending the negative interest rate policy came into focus. Such policy shift considerations arrive amidst growing interest rate gaps between Japan and the U.S.
China’s onshore yuan drew back from its 16-year low after the central bank set a robust daily midpoint guidance, reflecting their increasing concern over the yuan’s recent slump. This adjustment is backed by positive signs from China’s economic data, indicating a potential stabilization in their economic landscape.
Despite short-term fluctuations, the U.S. dollar may see a bullish trend, especially if upcoming inflation data supports a resilient U.S. economic outlook. On the other hand, external factors like BOJ’s potential policy shift and China’s economic indicators might influence global currency dynamics in the coming weeks.
The US Dollar Index is currently positioned at 104.487, displaying a modest decline from the prior 4-hour mark of 104.640. Impressively, the index trades above both the 200-4H moving average (103.274) and the 50-4H moving average (104.376), signaling bullish momentum.
The 14-4H RSI, registering at 42.17, indicates a slight weakening momentum, although it’s not in the oversold zone.
With the main support bracketed between 103.273 to 103.013 and primary resistance set from 104.403 to 104.699, the market landscape is notably bullish. Given these technical markers, the current sentiment for DXY is slightly bullish with caution advised due to the RSI reading. Furthermore, a failure to hold the 50-4H moving average could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.