US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Rallies on CPI Expectations; Gold, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Gains as Inflation Data Looms; Gold Steady

The US Dollar showed strength ahead of key inflation data, holding steady as traders anticipate the Core CPI and CPI data releases on Wednesday, Nov 13. The Dollar Index’s resilience reflects expectations that inflation pressures could influence Federal Reserve policy, particularly if year-over-year CPI growth meets the forecast of 2.6%.

Higher inflation may prompt a hawkish Fed stance, potentially raising yields and supporting the dollar.

In contrast, gold prices have remained stable, as rising inflation and dollar strength typically create headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed’s approach, with several FOMC members scheduled to speak this week.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.11, up 0.14% in the 4-hour timeframe, reflecting mild bullish momentum. Currently above the pivot point at $106.01, DXY shows near-term strength, with immediate resistance at $106.27. Should it clear this level, further resistance lies at $106.44 and $106.65.

On the downside, initial support sits at $105.74, with additional backing at $105.57. The 50-day EMA at $105.70 reinforces near-term support, while the 200-day EMA, lower at $104.93, signals a broader upward trend.

Traders are eyeing $106.01 as a key threshold; staying above it could extend the bullish sentiment, while a dip below might shift the focus to support levels and invite selling pressure.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,605.90, up 0.29%, but remains below the pivot at $2,612.80. A double-top resistance and the 50-day EMA at $2,622.08 cap gains, with further resistance at $2,626.76.

Support holds at $2,592.77 and lower at $2,578.68. Breaking above $2,612.80 could spark bullish momentum, while failure may push prices toward immediate support.

GBP Under Pressure as Unemployment Rises to 4.3%

The British Pound faces downward pressure as UK unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, above the forecasted 4.1%. Additionally, the claimant count increased by 26.7K, signaling possible labor market challenges.

Despite the rise in unemployment, average earnings rose to 4.3%, beating the forecast of 3.9%, potentially providing some support for the GBP.

Investors are now watching MPC Member Mann’s speech for insights into the Bank of England’s next steps on interest rates.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.27321, showing a minor decline of 0.12% on the 4-hour chart. Currently sitting below the pivot point at $1.27542, the pair leans bearish, with immediate support at $1.27210. If prices dip further, we could see additional support at $1.26775 and $1.26446.

On the upside, breaking above $1.27542 could invite bullish momentum, with resistance levels at $1.27935 and $1.28311. The 50-day EMA at $1.28064 and 200-day EMA at $1.28937 suggest overhead resistance, adding to the bearish outlook for now.

EUR Pressured by Weak German Sentiment Data

The Euro struggles as German economic sentiment indicators fall short. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment index dropped to 7.4, below the expected 13.2, reflecting weaker investor confidence.

Additionally, the broader Eurozone ZEW sentiment slipped to 12.5, missing forecasts of 20.5. While the German CPI held steady at 0.4% month-over-month, the softening sentiment underscores ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone.

Markets now await the German 10-year bond auction results for further direction.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is hovering around $1.06050, down 0.18% today, as it faces some resistance in reclaiming higher levels. Right now, the pair is just below its pivot point at $1.06292, which is a key level to watch. If EUR/USD pushes above this pivot, we could see more bullish momentum, potentially driving it toward the $1.06497 resistance.

On the flip side, immediate support sits at $1.05948, with further support at $1.05758. The 50-day EMA at $1.06437 indicates a bearish tilt since the current price is below it, and the longer-term 200-day EMA at $1.07366 suggests there’s room to recover.

Overall, EUR/USD looks bearish below $1.06292 unless it manages a convincing break above.