US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Uptrend Intact; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Gains as Gold Weakens Ahead of Key FOMC Speeches

The U.S. Dollar gained momentum as the NFIB Small Business Index rose to 91.5, surpassing the previous figure of 91.2. Meanwhile, the trade balance showed a narrower deficit at -$70.4 billion. Gold prices remain under pressure, trading near $2,621, as investors anticipate comments from several Federal Reserve officials throughout the day.

The upcoming FOMC speeches, along with the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, are expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook.

A strong dollar and rising Treasury yields could continue to weigh on gold in the near term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading slightly higher at $102.565, up 0.08% for the day, signalling a modest bullish tone.

On the 4-hour chart, the index has recently completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around the $102.35 support level, indicating that the uptrend remains intact above this point.

Immediate resistance stands at $102.692, with further targets at $102.889 and $103.073 if the bullish momentum continues.

The 50-day EMA at $101.869 and the 200-day EMA at $101.596 provide underlying support, reinforcing the index’s upward bias.

A break below $102.350 could trigger a pullback, but holding above this level supports the bullish case for the near term.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $2,621.62, struggling to stay above the $2,620 support level. The 2-hour chart shows the pivot point at $2,624.22, with immediate resistance at $2,635.46.

The 50-day EMA at $2,639.20 indicates potential bearish pressure. A break above $2,635 could trigger a bullish reversal, while falling below $2,620 may accelerate selling momentum.

Sterling Awaits Bond Auction and House Price Data

Sterling (GBP) is poised for potential volatility today with the 10-year bond auction scheduled, expected to yield 3.76% versus the previous 2.8%.

Later, the RICS House Price Balance data is forecasted at 9%, up from 1%, highlighting a potential rebound in the UK housing market.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.30944, down 0.07% for the day, as the pair consolidates just below the $1.31068 pivot point.

The 4-hour chart shows that the 50-day EMA at $1.31803 and the 200-day EMA at $1.31659 are acting as near-term resistance levels.

Immediate support is seen at $1.30585, with further downside protection at $1.30312 and $1.30026.

If GBP/USD breaks above the $1.31068 pivot, it could target resistance at $1.31348 and $1.31744. Conversely, staying below $1.31068 could keep the pair under pressure.

The price action suggests a cautious market tone, as traders await a decisive move above or below these levels to confirm a trend direction.

Euro Rises as German Industrial Output Surges

The Euro (EUR) gained strength after German industrial production rose by 2.9% in September, surpassing the forecast of 0.8% and recovering from a previous decline of -2.9%.

However, France’s trade balance showed a higher deficit at -€7.4 billion compared to the expected -€5.5 billion.

Today’s focus is on the upcoming German Trade Balance report, projected to reach €22.5 billion. Positive data could further support the Euro, especially amid ongoing ECOFIN meetings discussing Eurozone economic policies.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.09705, down 0.08% for the day, hovering near a key support level at $1.09516.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is struggling below the pivot point at $1.09844, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

A break above this level could lead to a test of immediate resistance at $1.10038, followed by $1.10187. Meanwhile, the 50-day EMA at $1.09982 acts as a near-term barrier, while the 200-day EMA at $1.10646 highlights longer-term resistance.

If the price remains below $1.09844, bearish pressure may continue, targeting supports at $1.09291 and $1.09097.

However, breaking above $1.09844 could indicate a bullish reversal, supported by an upward trendline that’s holding firm today.