US Dollar Price Forecast: Steady Amid FOMC Talks; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Steady as Gold Awaits Key Housing Data

The US Dollar held steady after FOMC Member Goolsbee’s comments, while TIC Long-Term Purchases surprised markets with a $216.1B reading, well above the $114.3B forecast. Gold prices remained range-bound, reflecting investor caution ahead of U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts data due Tuesday.

Housing metrics could provide insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

With FOMC Member Schmid scheduled to speak, traders are closely watching for cues on policy shifts that may impact gold, a non-yielding asset sensitive to interest rate movements.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $106.26, up a modest 0.03%, reflecting a cautious market tone. The index sits below its pivot point at $106.40, which serves as a crucial inflection level.

A move above this could open the door to immediate resistance at $107.08, with further targets at $107.46 and $107.79. On the downside, support levels to watch are $105.97, $105.62, and $105.29.

The 50-day EMA at $105.95 provides near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $104.39 underscores the index’s broader bullish momentum. The technical outlook remains constructive above $106.40, but a break below this level could signal a deeper pullback, suggesting caution for dollar bulls in the short term.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,622.23, up 0.39%, near its pivot at $2,626.46. A breakout targets $2,644.62, while failure risks a pullback to $2,608.29. The 50-day EMA at $2,598.03 supports prices, while the 200-day EMA at $2,650.02 reinforces resistance.

A double-top near $2,626 adds selling pressure, making this level a critical decision zone for traders, with sharp moves expected based on a breakout or breakdown.

GBP Eyes Volatility Ahead of Policy Report Hearings

The British Pound faced pressure as the Rightmove HPI declined by 1.4%, a sharp drop from the previous 0.3% gain, signaling housing market weakness. MPC Member Greene’s remarks offered little relief as traders anticipate the Monetary Policy Report Hearings on Tuesday.

The hearings will provide insights into the Bank of England’s economic outlook, which could determine near-term GBP movement. Meanwhile, ongoing G20 meetings add to the cautious sentiment surrounding Sterling’s performance.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.26697, down 0.06%, reflecting a cautious bearish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. The pair is hovering below its pivot point at $1.26872, which remains a key level for a potential shift in momentum.

Immediate resistance levels are $1.27195, $1.27544, and $1.27934, while immediate support is seen at $1.26362, followed by $1.26034 and $1.25669.

The 50-day EMA at $1.27493 underscores a bearish outlook, with the 200-day EMA at $1.29256 reinforcing broader downward pressure. A descending trendline continues to cap gains, maintaining selling bias unless $1.26872 is breached.

Euro Gains Momentum on Surging Trade Balance Data

The Euro saw a boost as the Eurozone trade balance soared to €13.6B, significantly surpassing the forecast of €7.9B. While ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided monetary policy discussions in her remarks, she highlighted key structural challenges in the EU, including lagging innovation and geopolitical pressures.

Markets now await upcoming data, including the Current Account and Final CPI readings, for further direction. Persistent inflation at 2.7% could maintain the ECB’s cautious policy stance.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.05846, down 0.12%, reflecting sustained bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.05986, which acts as a critical threshold for directional moves.

Immediate resistance lies at $1.06536, with further hurdles at $1.07242 and $1.07975. Conversely, support levels to monitor are $1.04961, $1.04412, and $1.03802 if selling pressure intensifies.

The 50-day EMA at $1.06280 reinforces near-term resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $1.07944 suggests a broader bearish trend. A downward trendline adds resistance, maintaining the selling bias. A break above $1.05986 could shift sentiment, but failure to reclaim this level keeps the outlook bearish.