US Dollar Price Forecast: Weak Jobs Data Spurs Gold Rise, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Drops, Gold Rises on Weak Employment Data

The U.S. Dollar weakened following disappointing employment data, with Non-Farm Employment Change adding only 12K jobs against a forecast of 106K. This sharp decline in job creation, alongside the stagnant Unemployment Rate at 4.1%, raises concerns over economic resilience.

Average Hourly Earnings increased slightly to 0.4%, but it was insufficient to offset the weak employment data. As a result, gold prices found support, benefiting from increased demand as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, U.S. Factory Orders on Monday could further influence market sentiment, especially if they reflect economic slowing, potentially supporting gold prices in the near term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at $103.756, down 0.54%, sitting just below a critical pivot point at $103.83. This level is essential for direction: if DXY breaks above it, there’s potential to see bullish momentum toward immediate resistance at $104.04, with further targets at $104.16 and $104.34.

However, staying below this pivot keeps the bearish tone intact, with immediate support at $103.55, followed by deeper support levels at $103.43 and $103.30.

The 50-day EMA at $104.01 and 200-day EMA at $104.03 reinforce the resistance overhead, suggesting a challenging path up.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,738.77, up 0.08%, just below a crucial pivot at $2,744. A break above could push it toward resistance levels at $2,754.58 and $2,762.54.

On the downside, support lies at $2,731.98, with further layers at $2,724.73 and $2,717.08. The 50-day EMA at $2,752.78 hints at short-term resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $2,720.54 provides solid support.

Sterling Eyes Policy Report and Bond Auction for Direction

Sterling (GBP) is under watch as key economic events unfold this week. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed a slight decline, with growth at 1.4% year-over-year, down from 1.7%. The Final Services PMI held steady at 51.8, signaling moderate sector stability.

Investors are closely watching Tuesday’s 10-year bond auction, where yields are expected around 4.17%, and the Monetary Policy Report Hearings, which may provide insights on future rate adjustments.

These events could shape the pound’s near-term direction.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.29866, up 0.56%, but sits just below a crucial pivot point at $1.29988. This level is pivotal: a break above it could open the path to immediate resistance at $1.30268, with further targets at $1.30434 and $1.30666.

On the downside, support holds at $1.29664, with additional layers at $1.29432 and $1.29100. The 50-day EMA at $1.29463 suggests mild support, while the 200-day EMA at $1.29669 could act as a short-term floor.

Right now, staying below $1.29988 keeps the bias bearish, while breaking above would likely drive bullish momentum.

Euro Supported by Positive Spanish Manufacturing Data

The Euro (EUR) showed resilience as Spain’s Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, rising to 54.5 against the forecast of 53.1.

This positive surprise adds support to the euro amidst expectation of steady readings in Italy, France, and Germany’s manufacturing PMIs.

Sentix Investor Confidence, while still negative, improved to -12.7 from -13.8, signaling slightly reduced pessimism. With Eurogroup meetings scheduled, the EUR may see further movement based on policy discussions.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08930, up 0.57% on the day, hovering just below a crucial pivot at $1.09076. This level is key: a break above it could open the door for a move toward immediate resistance at $1.09469, with further targets at $1.09697 and $1.09991.

However, a downward trendline and recent double top pattern suggest a cautious outlook, with the 200-day EMA at $1.09207 adding pressure above.

On the downside, support holds at $1.08794, followed by deeper layers at $1.08507 and $1.08172. A move below $1.09076 could keep the bearish tone intact.