The US dollar has been quiet as the liquidity starts to disappear, as the market is likely to continue to see a lot of questions asked about whether it can strengthen even further. With the Fed likely to be a bit more hawkish next year, the dollar could run further.
The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the early hours on Christmas Eve, which you would expect to be somewhat quiet markets around the world. Some are a little bit livelier than others, but it is worth noting it is a bank holiday in Germany. So that obviously had a major influence on liquidity. That being said, when we look at this chart, the 1.03 level is an obvious support level. So, we do need to pay close attention to it. Breaking down below there would of course be negative.
But I think more likely than not, we’re just going to continue to see sideways action as we drift through the holidays. If we were to break above the 1.0650 level, then we could go higher, but I’m not necessarily expecting that anytime soon.
The US dollar is pretty quiet against the Japanese yen, but it is still very elevated and looks as if the 158 yen level is an area that people are going to be paying attention to. If the market can break above there, then it’s likely that we will go looking toward the 162 yen level eventually, and that is what I expect to happen. When will it happen? That is a completely different question due to the nature of holiday trading. Short-term pullbacks, of course, will be supported. I believe the 155 yen level is now basically the floor in the market as interest rate differential continues to favor the green bag.
The Australian dollar looks pretty miserable, and it is likely to continue to threaten a breakdown below the 0.62 level. So that’s something worth paying close attention to. If we drop down below there, we’re probably looking at 0.60 on a bounce. I think you’ve got a situation where the 0.6350 level above eases your ceiling. Any rally at this point in time that shows the first inclinations of failing, I’m more than willing to start shorting as the Australian dollar continues to be extraordinarily weak.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.