USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Drops in Early Hours Against The Yen

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar did pull back just a bit against the Japanese yen in the early hours during the trading session on Monday but has turned around to show signs of life. All things being equal, I think you’ve got a situation where the 155 yen level is going to offer a significant floor in the market. And it does look like we are trying to turn things around in the early hours of the New York session.

If we can break above the 50 day EMA, then I think the US dollar really takes off to the upside, perhaps looking to the 160 yen level. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppy and volatile behavior, but at the same time, you have to keep in mind that the Bank of Japan really can’t do anything with monetary policy at this point. There’s just too much debt in Japan for them to start raising rates drastically.

With this, I think you have a situation where we will be very noisy, but I do think that in the longer term, we will continue to go higher and perhaps grind towards that 160 level. I don’t think it’s going to be an easy trade, but you do get paid at the end of every day. And that’s probably something worth paying attention to. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon as the markets will continue to find interest rate differentials attractive overall.

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