USD/JPY Forecast – US Dollar Pulled Back Against the Japanese Yen

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 09.06.23

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Alternatively, this market has to figure out what to do next, as we have been bouncing around in the same consolidation area for a while. By falling the way we have, it does look as if we are testing the ¥139 level. Underneath there, we also have the ¥130 level after that offer and support. The ¥130 level is an area that will be important due to the fact that it was the top of the ascending triangle that we had been in previously. At this point, the market looks as if it will have a lot of noise ahead of it, but that makes quite a bit of sense as we try to sort out what the central banks will do.

The US dollar has pulled back enough to show signs of hesitation, and with a little bit higher than anticipated unemployment claims number coming out in the United States, then it’s likely that this sharp pullback might be short-lived. Ultimately, the interest rate differential between the 2 economies makes quite a sense that we would continue to see buying pressure. And of course, the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control policy. In this environment, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where the market is going to change the overall attitude. If we can break above the ¥141 level, then it’s likely that we could send this market much higher.

On a break above the ¥141 level, this market will go much higher, opening up the possibility of a run all the way to the ¥148 level. This is the measured move from the ascending triangle underneath, so therefore I think technical traders will be looking for this type of move. Therefore, I think it’s probably more likely than not to be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The market will continue to be noisy, as we try to sort out whether or not we can build up enough momentum to go higher in the short term. It’s not until we break down below the 50-Day EMA that I’d be concerned about the uptrend.

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