UK Wages Surge 5.2% in October Testing Q1 2025 Rate Cut Bets: GBP/USD Eyes $1.27

Labor Market Overview, UK – December 2024

The latest UK labor market data delivered another challenge for investors betting on a near-term Bank of England rate cut. October’s figures will likely fuel fresh debate on the Bank of England’s next move.

The UK unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in October, suggesting a stabilizing labor market. However, average hourly earnings (including bonuses) rose by 5.2% in the three months to October 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, up sharply from 4.3% in September.

Data from the Office for National Statistics highlighted several key trends:

• The number of payrolled UK employees grew by 24,000 month-on-month in October but dropped by 22,000 over the three-month period.
• Job vacancies fell by 31,000 from September 2024 to November 2024, marking the 29th consecutive period of decline.
• Claimant counts edged up by 300 in November after falling by 10,900 in October.

Could stronger wages signal a BoE policy hold through Q1 2025?

October’s rise in average earnings (including bonuses) supports the BoE’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Higher wages may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Inflation trends may delay potential BoE rate cuts.

The UK’s annual inflation rate jumped from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October, surpassing the BoE’s 2% target. Upcoming UK inflation figures, due on Wednesday, may further dampen expectations for a Q1 2025 BoE rate cut. Economists expect an annual inflation rate of 2.6% in November.

The continued rise in inflation also raises concerns about the timing of any potential BoE rate cuts. Rising wages and higher inflation could put the BoE on an even more cautious footing on Thursday when it announces its final monetary policy decision for the year. Economists widely expect the BoE to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%.

However, the BoE must also consider the implications of the UK Budget. Businesses have warned about higher wages paired with job cuts, complicating the wage growth-unemployment dynamic as a guide for consumption and inflation trends.

What Do Experts Think About the Upcoming BoE Interest Rate Decision?

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, remarked on December’s PMI data, stating,

“While the December PMI is indicative of the economy more or less stalled in the fourth quarter, the loss of confidence and increased culling of jobs hints at worse to come as we head into the new year.”

Williamson concluded,

“Policymakers at the Bank of England may be cautious about cutting interest rates, however, given the resurgence of inflation being signaled, adding further to downturn risks in 2025.”

GBP/USD Response to the UK Labor Market Data

Ahead of the October UK labor market report, the GBP/USD briefly climbed to a high of $1.26981 before falling to a pre-report low of $1.26656.

After the release of the UK Labor Market Overview Report, the GBP/USD surged from $1.26707 to a high of $1.26947, reflecting the impact of wage growth on monetary policy.

On Tuesday, December 17, the GBP/USD was up 0.07% to $1.26905.