USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 6 – 10, 2013 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 19:00 GMT+00:00

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY moved to its highest level to trade at 99.03 at the close after hitting a weekly high of 99.27.

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USD/JPY

-0.05%

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 6 - 10, 2013 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY moved to its highest level to trade at 99.03 at the close after hitting a weekly high of 99.27. Increasingly, the foreign exchange debate has shifted from the impact of G4 monetary policy (the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) on other economies and currencies to the importance of stimulating growth in the major advanced economies through policy initiatives. Even the BoJ’s aggressive monetary policy measures seemed to have won support from major institutions and policymakers (G20, IMF, etc.) with very little political push-back. The mid-April collapse in gold prices suggests that valuations are incorporating central bank policy that is successfully supporting moderate growth but lacks enough momentum to risk a spike in inflation or central bank independence.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
May 03, 2013	99.03	97.94	99.27	97.94	1.10%
May 02, 2013	97.94	97.14	98.39	97.09	0.82%
May 01, 2013	97.14	97.28	97.67	97.03	-0.13%
Apr 30, 2013	97.28	97.89	98.12	97.02	-0.62%
Apr 29, 2013	97.89	97.86	98.20	97.36	0.02%
Apr 28, 2013	97.86	98.08	98.08	97.69	0.00%

The nation’s monetary base jumped 23.1 percent in April from a year earlier to ¥149.60 trillion, setting new record highs for two months in a row as the Bank of Japan aggressively eases to fight deflation.

The central bank said Thursday that the average daily balance of liquidity it provided — consisting of cash in circulation and the balance of current account deposits held by commercial financial institutions at the BOJ — expanded for the 12th consecutive month.

Under the new leadership of Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, the BOJ last month launched a set of new quantitative easing steps, including additional purchases of government bonds and risky financial assets, such as exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts.

The bank has pledged to achieve its 2 percent inflation target within two years, arguing that deflation is a “monetary phenomenon.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of April 29 – May 3 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Apr. 29	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%	0.7%
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	1.5%	1.0%	-1.0%
	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)	-9.1%	2.0%	4.4%
Apr. 30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.3%	0.6%	-2.3%
	USD	Employment Cost Index (QoQ)	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%
	USD	Chicago PMI	49.0	52.5	52.4
	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	68.1	60.8	61.9
May 01	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	4.2%		-5.3%
	CNY	Chinese Manufacturing PMI	50.60	51.00	50.90
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	119K	150K	131K
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	50.7	50.9	51.3
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
May 02	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	-5.5%	1.3%	3.0%
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.40	50.60	50.50
	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	0.7%	1.2%	-1.7%
	USD	Trade Balance	-38.8B	-42.0B	-43.6B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	324K	345K	342K
	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	0.5%	0.7%	4.4%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3019K	3028K	3007K
May 03	AUD	PPI (QoQ)	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	165K	145K	138K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.6	34.6
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	176K	160K	154K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.1	54.0	54.4

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 99.27 on May 03, 2013

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
May 06	02:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	1.3%
	23:45	NZD	Labor Cost Index (QoQ)	0.5%	0.5%
May 07	02:30	AUD	House Price Index (QoQ)	2.00%	1.60%
	02:30	AUD	Trade Balance		-0.18B
	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.00%	3.00%
May 08	03:00	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance		-0.88B
	23:45	NZD	Employment Change (QoQ)	0.8%	-1.0%
May 09	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	12.0K	-36.1K
	02:30	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)		2.1%
	02:30	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)		-1.9%
	02:30	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)		-0.9%
May 10	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	85.5B	-107.0B