Will Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) Crash After Airdrop Like Notcoin?

Hamster Kombat’s (HMSTR) airdrop is finally happening on Sep. 26.

The Telegram-backed, TON Blockchain-based game boasts impressive engagement figures in the blockchain gaming sector. For instance, it had amassed over 300 million players globally at the time of its airdrop announcement — and the numbers have increased ever since.

In comparison, the OG Telegram-based game, Notcoin (NOT), had attracted around 35 million players before its airdrop, followed by the attraction of 11.5 million NOT holders shortly after the distribution. Nonetheless, the NOT token suffered an 80%-plus price correction immediately after its airdrop.

What Will Happen to Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) Token After Airdrop?

Hamster Kombat’s massive player base suggests its airdrop will attract far more users than Notcoin. However, this scale could lead to even greater sell pressure once HMSTR hits exchanges, as many recipients may rush to sell their tokens.

Though no exchanges have been officially confirmed, HMSTR will likely follow Notcoin’s path and gain a listing on major crypto platforms like Binance, OKX, CoinW, and Bybit.

Airdrop selloffs are common in the crypto market, often leading to sharp price drops as early recipients rush to cash in. For example, Uniswap (UNI) experienced a significant selloff after its airdrop in September 2020. Despite initial excitement, UNI’s price fell nearly 90% as users offloaded their free tokens.

Similarly, Aptos (APT) saw a post-airdrop price plunge in October 2022. After distributing tokens to early users, APT dropped 40% within a day, overwhelmed by a flood of sell orders.

In the first days, airdrop tokens will be in the price discovery phase. That is why these assets form large upside wicks on their first daily and weekly candlesticks, suggesting bearish rejection.

In other words, sellers flood the market, with early recipients cashing out, preventing the token from holding its highs. The same will likely happen to the HMSTR token price in the first week of its trading.

A Sharp HMSTR Price Recovery May Follow, Eventually

Notcoin’s 80% price decline after the airdrop found dip-buyers, leading its prices to a new record high of around $0.0293 in June 2024. Since then, the NOT token has been consolidating more or less inside a slightly bearish trajectory.

This consolidation aligns with declining on-chain volumes, reflecting waning trader interest as other Telegram airdrops have been announced and launched.

The current price and volume pattern in NOT suggests that Hamster Kombat could follow a similar path, consolidating after hitting its post-airdrop peak during the price discovery phase.

The price and volume behavior of Notcoin reveal a common post-airdrop strategy: traders capitalize on sharp declines to buy tokens at perceived discounts. This behavior reflects optimism in potential long-term gains despite early sell pressure.

However, as the excitement fades and on-chain volumes decrease, it shows that traders tend to lose interest once the initial price discovery phase is over, especially with newer opportunities emerging.

One Major Reason Why Hamster Kombat May Stay More Relevant Than Notcoin

Hamster Kombat’s user statistics are a key indicator of the token’s potential for a rapid recovery. The 300 million players and 80 million active users suggest that many players may see long-term value in holding HMSTR rather than selling it immediately.

That is also because, unlike Notcoin’s straightforward “tap-to-earn” mechanic, Hamster Kombat integrates a much richer environment. Players take on the role of the CEO of a virtual crypto exchange, navigating various tasks such as managing teams’ markets and upgrading their exchange — a far more interesting gaming concept.

On a more cautious note, Hamster Kombat’s core concept—players acting as CEOs of virtual crypto exchanges—could be easily replicated or even enhanced. A new game that introduces better airdrop structures or more engaging utility features could quickly draw users away from Hamster Kombat, undercutting its growth and reducing the appeal of holding HMSTR tokens in the long run.