Will Summer Driving Season Demand Send Oil Prices To $100 A Barrel?

This comes as no surprise, considering the current macroeconomic backdrop is fuelling a “perfect storm” Commodities firmly positioning the entire sector on track for its best two back-to-back quarters in over a decade.

A long list of the world’s most powerful Wall Street banks have described the current economic climate as “The Golden Age of Trading”.

And you only have to look at the headlines to see why.

Oil Prices Soar as Driving Season Begins, Inflation Concerns Rise

As we head into a new month and a new quarter, Energy prices are beginning to dominating the headlines as the summer driving season officially gets underway.

On Tuesday, Oil prices unleashed a fresh bullish rally with Brent Crude, the international benchmark surging above $87 a barrel, its highest level since April – while WTI Crude Oil topped a two-month high of $84 a barrel.

And the rally might not stop there!

According to GSC Commodity Intelligence – traders have shifted their attention to the 4th of July U.S Independence Day holiday weekend on rising expectations that travel demand will be almost 10% higher compared to last year.

From an inflationary perspective, that could be an issue for President Biden with the cost of everyday goods, including Oil prices still ranked as a top issue for voters.

Just two months ago, in mid-April, the prospect of direct conflict between Israel and Iran led to global Oil prices soaring above $90 a barrel, with fears of worse to come. But the geopolitical premium quickly receded.

However, in recent weeks, Oil prices have rapidly rebounded to the mid-$80s – And could certainly go a lot higher with the summer increase in demand, as motorists take to the roads.

Hurricane Season Threatens to Disrupt Oil Supply

Additionally, the growing risks of hurricane season have increased chances of major storms disrupting the huge Oil complex in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Gulf coast.

In a note to clients, analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence wrote that “there are five key refineries in the Corpus Christi area with 942,000 barrels per day of capacity, which is equivalent to around 5.6% of total U.S refining capacity. Right now, with Gulf refiners operating at maximum capacity – nearly 95% to be exact – there is absolutely no slack in the system to make up for lost production if a significant number of refineries are shut down”.

Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. It certainly won’t take much for Oil prices to move significantly higher in this current macroeconomic environment and hit new highs in the coming weeks and months ahead.