XRP and a Choppy Return to $1.00 in Hands of the Hinman Docs

Key Insights:

• On Sunday, XRP tracked the crypto market into positive territory, gaining 2.73% to end the week at $0.52094.
• Hopes of US legislation to deliver regulatory clarity provided support amidst the SEC onslaught.
• The technical indicators send bullish signals, bringing $0.55 into view.

On Sunday, XRP gained 2.73%. Partially reversing a 5.76% slide from Saturday, XRP ended the week down 2.59% to $0.52094. Despite the bullish session, XRP fell short of the $0.53 handle for the first time in three sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall to an early morning low of $0.50309. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4754, XRP rose to a late session high of $0.52913. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5387, XRP eased back to end the day at $0.52094.

Countdown Continues to Unredacted Hinman Documents

It was another quiet session on Sunday. There were no SEC v Ripple case updates to draw interest. The lack of SEC v Ripple chatter left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Following the SEC onslaught, US lawmakers offered a glimmer of hope over the weekend. The news of Senator Cynthia Lummis working on a regulatory framework provided support.

The latest from Capitol Hill followed the release of the Digital Asset Market Structure Draft Bill. The Bill aims for regulatory clarity while removing gaps and fueling innovation.

While US lawmakers offered support, the William Hinman speech-related documents remain the focal point. The SEC will release the speech-related documents on Wednesday. The speech-related documents have fueled optimism for a Ripple win in the long-lasting battle with the SEC.

A Ripple victory would be a boon for XRP and the broader crypto market.

Amicus Curiae attorney John Deaton had this to say about the SEC,

“Everyone needs to remember the SEC calling an asset a security does NOT mean it is a security. Here is the SEC admitting that the Court decides if the SEC’s claim or theory is valid.”

Deaton shared the SEC response to his Writ of Mandamus, highlighting one section that stated,

“Thus, the Commission’s enforcement proceeding in the Southern District of New York brought under the Securities Act, supplies the exclusive method for testing the validity of the Commission’s complaint against Ripple.”

With the SEC v Ripple case ongoing and charges against Binance and Coinbase, the SEC could be in the Courts for years, which would leave the crypto market in regulatory purgatory under the reign of regulation by enforcement. US Republican lawmakers need to drum up support from the other side of the aisle to dilute the SEC’s powers.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet start to the week, with no US economic indicators to consider. The lack of economic indicators and Fed chatter leaves XRP in the hands of the crypto new wires.

SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC-Coinbase (COIN)-related news would move the dial.

Investors await the Wednesday release of the infamous William Hinman speech-related documents. However, hopes of a settlement are fading with just three days remaining until the SEC releases the docs.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.30% to $0.51936. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to a high of $0.52265 before falling to an early low of $0.51815.

XRP Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

XRP needs to avoid the $0.5177 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5324. A move through the Sunday high of $0.52913 would signal an extended breakout session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter and the crypto news wires must support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5438. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5698.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.5063 into play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.50 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4917. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4656.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bullish signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.51467. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.51467) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.5324) to target R2 ($0.5438) and $0.55. However, a fall through the 50-day ($0.51467) would bring S1 ($0.5063) and the 100-day EMA ($0.50569) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.