XRP Bulls in the Need of a Ruling in the SEC v Ripple Case to Deliver $0.53

Key Insights:

• On Wednesday, XRP tracked the broader market into negative territory, falling by 2.44% to end the day at $0.50495.
• Updates from the SEC v Ripple case and market reaction to the US CPI Report and FOMC meeting minutes weighed on buyer appetite.
• However, the technical indicators are mixed, signaling a choppy Thursday session.

On Wednesday, XRP fell by 2.44%. Following a 0.08% loss on Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.50495. The bearish session dragged XRP to sub-$0.50 for the first time in three sessions before a partial recovery.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early morning high of $0.51792. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5271, XRP fell to a mid-morning low of $0.49815. XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.5096 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.5016 before a partial recovery to end the session at $0.50495.

The SEC and US Economic Indicators Send XRP into Negative Territory

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case weighed on investor sentiment on Wednesday. The SEC submitted a Letter of Supplemental Authority supporting its Motion for Summary Judgment, citing the SEC v Commonwealth Equity Servs., LLC case, favoring the SEC.

Investor sensitivity to the SEC filing was evident, with presiding Judge Torres yet to rule on several filings and motions. The SEC filing was in response to a Ripple letter referencing comments from Judge Wiles, the presiding judge in the Voyager Digital bankruptcy case.

On the face of it, Judge Wiles’s comments may resonate more with Judge Torres. However, with the increased anti-crypto sentiment from the White House, the Wednesday reversal reflected investor angst over the SEC filing and uncertainty toward the outcome of the case.

US economic indicators added to the bearish mood, with the CPI Report and FOMC meeting minutes also weighing. XRP responded to the pickup in the core annual inflation rate to 5.6% with a fall to the session low of $0.49815.

The Day Ahead

Updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case will remain the key driver. Investors should monitor the crypto news wires and Twitter for a Ripple response to the SEC filing.

However, a lack of SEC v Ripple-related news will leave regulatory activity in the spotlight. IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings news updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN) commentary will move the dial.

Away from the crypto market, US economic indicators and sentiment toward Fed monetary policy will influence the afternoon session. US wholesale inflation and jobless claims will be in focus. Softer wholesale inflation numbers should deliver XRP support, while a larger-than-expected rise in jobless claims would be bearish.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.33% to $0.50330. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.50522 before falling to a low of $0.50253.

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.5070 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.5159 and the Wednesday high of $0.51792. A return to $0.5150 would signal a bullish session. However, SEC v Ripple chatter would need to support a breakout.

In the case of another extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.5268 and resistance at $0.53. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.5465.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.4961 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.49 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.4872. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.4675.

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent mixed signals.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.49722. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.50789) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.5159) to target R2 ($0.5268) and $0.53. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.50789) would bring the 100-day EMA ($0.49722) and S1 ($0.4961) into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.