On Sunday, October 13, XRP declined by 1.35%, reversing a modest 0.20% gain from the previous session to close at $0.5320. XRP continued underperforming the broader crypto market, which slipped by 0.45% to a total market cap of $2.145 trillion.
On Sunday, October 13, uncertainty about the SEC’s appeal strategy left XRP below the $0.55 level. XRP remained under pressure as investors awaited the SEC and Ripple’s court filings in the SEC v Ripple case. The SEC’s potential challenge against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling remains a focal point.
After the SEC filed its Notice of Appeal, the court docket revealed the agency’s plans to appeal against the Summary Judgment and the final judgment. In the Summary Judgment, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
Pro-crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli recently shared the potential appellate timelines, expecting the SEC’s brief by December 2, 2024. However, Rispoli anticipates the SEC to seek a 30-day extension, potentially leaving XRP in limbo until January 2025.
The SEC’s opening brief could be crucial for XRP and views on the SEC’s chances of overturning the Programmatic Sales ruling. For investors hoping for a swift resolution, Rispoli predicts a Second Circuit ruling no sooner than January 2026.
Speculation about the SEC’s appeal included potential scenarios in the event of Kamala Harris winning the US Presidential Election. Rispoli speculated on how the results of the US Presidential Election could impact the SEC’s appeal path, stating,
“Of course, an SEC loss at the 2nd Cir of that magnitude–combined with a Harris win–would guarantee an appeal to the Supreme Court. If Trump wins, there may not be a Supreme Court appeal in the event of an SEC loss at the 2nd Cir.”
While Rispoli believes the SEC would not go to the Supreme Court if it loses in the 2nd Circuit and Trump wins, it is plausible that the SEC would drop the appeal. In July 2024, Trump said he would fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one.
John E. Deaton, who represented 75,000 XRP holders in the Ripple case, criticized the SEC, saying,
“SEC needs to be led by people without conflicts of interest or ideological biases who put retail investors first. I’m proud my pro bono efforts in the Ripple case helped expose the massive conflicts of interest at the SEC. Gary Gensler Has to Go.”
XRP could remain below $0.55 until the US Presidential Election on November 5, 2024. A Trump victory could fuel optimism, possibly driving XRP to $1.00, retracing its rally after the Programmatic Sales ruling.
Conversely, a Harris victory would likely leave XRP in the hands of the appeal courts. XRP could drop below $0.50 if the SEC offers convincing arguments, challenging the Programmatic Sales ruling.
Investors should closely monitor appeal-related updates, which will likely influence XRP demand. Keep track of SEC actions, which could be pivotal in dictating XRP’s price movements.
XRP hovers below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.
A breakout from the October 7 high of $0.5461 could bring the 200-day and 50-day EMAs into play. Furthermore, a break above the EMAs may signal a move toward the $0.5739 resistance level.
Ripple case-related news, SEC activity, and SEC vs. crypto case-related updates require consideration.
Conversely, a fall through the $0.50 level may give the bears a run at the trend lines.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 40.87, XRP could drop below $0.50 before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.