On Wednesday, October 9, XRP declined by 1.39%, reversing a 0.47% gain from the previous session, closing at $0.5235. Despite the loss, XRP outperformed the broader crypto market, which fell by 2.23% to a total market cap of $2.070 trillion.
Recent US XRP-spot ETF applications have fueled expectations of a sharp increase in XRP demand. Notably, Bitwise and Canary Funds submitted XRP-spot ETF applications amid intensifying speculation about the SEC’s appeal against rulings in the Ripple case.
Canary Funds founder and CEO Steven McClurg was formerly the Chief Investment Officer for Valkyrie Funds, which launched the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR), a US BTC-spot ETF. Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terret shared an interview with Bloomberg, where the former CIO at Valkyrie Funds predicted the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, stating,
“I even think we might see something from Ripple, given the recent progress. You noticed that Grayscale just added Ripple to one of their trusts, it’s publicly traded. So, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Ripple or Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs out there. I really don’t know if we’re going to do that or not. I think those are more retail plays and people have other ways to access them. But given that this market, anything could happen, anything could happen.”
Despite the two filings, XRP remains well below the November 2023 high of $0.7503. On November 13, news hit the crypto wires of BlackRock (BLK) filing an XRP-spot ETF application. XRP rallied to the $0.75 level before sliding below $0.60 after BlackRock denied the reports.
The SEC’s Notice of Appeal has impacted XRP demand, with investors speculating about the SEC challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. On October 2, XRP tumbled by 9.78% on news of the SEC filing its Notice of Appeal. XRP has hovered below the $0.55 level since the filing.
The SEC must file a docketing statement within 14 days of the Notice of Appeal filing, which will provide more details about the appeal, including the order(s) or judgment(s) being appealed.
There is speculation that the SEC and Ripple may settle within this 14-day window. However, considering the SEC’s stance on the Programmatic Sales ruling, a settlement looks unlikely.
A former SEC lawyer recently discussed the SEC’s view on the Programmatic Sales ruling, saying,
“The SEC will ‘probably’ appeal Judge Torres’s July 2023 ruling concerning the XRP programmatic sales in the Ripple case partly because: ‘everyone over there [at the SEC] truly believes that the decision is wrong, that it’s not good law, and should be appealed.”
In August 2023, the SEC filed a Motion for Interlocutory Appeal, seeking permission to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling. However, Judge Torres rejected the Motion in October 2023, forcing the SEC to wait until the final judgment to appeal.
XRP could hover below the $0.55 level as investors await the SEC’s docketing statement. Ripple may also cross-appeal, which could fuel more uncertainty. Ongoing speculation about the SEC’s appeal and the court filings will influence XRP demand.
If the SEC appeals the Programmatic Sales ruling, XRP could drop toward $0.50. Conversely, if the SEC withdraws its appeal, it could rally toward $1.00, mirroring price action following the Programmatic Sales ruling.
Investors should closely monitor appeal-related news, which may affect XRP price trends. Keep track of SEC actions, which could be pivotal in dictating price movements.
XRP remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bearish price trends.
A return to $0.5350 could support a move toward the 200-day EMA. Furthermore, a breakout from the 200-day EMA may give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA and the $0.5739 resistance level.
Ripple case-related news, SEC activity, and SEC vs. crypto case-related updates require consideration.
Conversely, a break below the $0.50 level could signal a fall toward the trend lines.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 37.96, XRP may fall to $0.50 before entering oversold territory.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.