On Saturday, April 5, XRP advanced 0.73%, following Friday’s 3.21% gain, closing at $2.1443. Significantly, XRP extended its winning streak to three sessions, outperforming the broader crypto market, which fell 0.44% to a total crypto market cap of $2.64 trillion.
Regulatory developments from the SEC boosted XRP investor confidence. On April 5, SEC Acting Chair Mark Uyeda issued a statement referencing Executive Order 14192, Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation. He requested that SEC staff promptly review guidance documents, including one relating to the framework for Investment Contract analysis of digital assets.
This framework focuses on the three prongs of the Howey Test: investment of money, common enterprise, and reasonable expectations of profits derived from the efforts of others.
Common enterprise and reasonable expectations of profits derived from the efforts of others featured prominently in the SEC v Ripple case.
Journalist and CryptoAmerica host Eleanor Terrett commented:
“One of those pieces of guidance is from 2019 called ‘Framework for Investment Contract Analysis of Digital Assets’ which relied in part on the 2018 speech given by then Corporation Finance Director Bill Hinman who said a key factor in determining whether the Howey Test applied to digital assets was the level of centralization or decentralization of the network and the asset in question, rather than on how the token was sold.”
Terrett concluded:
“This suggests the agency is looking to modify or rescind this guidance based on the work of the Crypto Task Force and current views of the Commission.”
Rescinding the guidance would be another boost for XRP and the broader crypto market. This guidance provided the SEC with the basis to target crypto-related firms.
The review may facilitate an appeal withdrawal in the Ripple case. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently announced that the SEC would withdraw its appeal challenging the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. However, until now, the SEC has remained silent on its appeal plans.
Following this, Ripple announced its cross-appeal withdrawal and settlement terms stemming from Judge Analisa Torres’ Final Judgment. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared details of the settlement. Both parties agreed to remove the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and a lower penalty of $50 million. However, final settlement terms are likely contingent on the SEC formally ending its appeal and Ripple withdrawing its cross-appeal.
XRP’s short-term trajectory hinges on the SEC’s appeal withdrawal, the Final Judgment, and the potential approval of XRP-spot ETFs.
XRP Price Scenarios:
Despite a three-day winning streak, XRP remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), sending bearish price signals. Nonetheless, XRP still trades above the 200-day EMA, offering long-term support.
A move above the 50-day EMA could open the door to the March 19 high of $2.5925. If XRP makes a decisive move above $2.5925, the bulls could target the January 16 high of $3.3999 next.
Conversely, an XRP drop below $2 and the 200-day EMA would bring the $1.9299 support level into play.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 43.12, XRP could fall below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
XRP’s broader outlook hinges on the SEC’s next moves and ongoing settlement discussions. Beyond legal developments, macroeconomic conditions—ranging from trade tensions to economic indicators and Fed policy—also play a key role in shaping investor sentiment.
Back in January, XRP surged to $3.3999 amid optimism surrounding a potential appeal withdrawal and pro-crypto sentiment under a prospective Trump administration. Since then, trade tensions have tempered demand.
Investors should remain alert. The SEC’s appeal move, Ripple’s cross-appeal, and progress on XRP-spot ETF applications may act as key drivers.
Don’t miss our latest price forecast—click here.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.