A third consecutive day in the red leaves XRP in the hands of FOMC member chatter, the NASDAQ 100, and any court ruling on the Hinman docs.
On Sunday, XRP slid by 4.13%. Following a 0.61% loss on Saturday, XRP ended the week down by 6.74% to $0.32181.
Range-bound through most of the Sunday session, XRP rose to a late afternoon high of $0.33719. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3445, XRP eased back to sub-$0.335 before a final hour sell-off.
In the final hour, XRP slid through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3272 to a low of $0.32181.
The ongoing SEC v Ripple case failed to provide direction, with the Courts yet to deliver a decision on the SEC objection. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market and the NASDAQ 100 Mini, which sent XRP to the final hour low.
This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 180 points.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday continued to weigh on investor appetite through the weekend. After sliding by 3.21% on Friday, a lack of cues from the US markets left XRP with a modest 0.61% loss on Saturday. However, selling pressure intensified in the final hour of the Sunday session, with the NASDAQ 100 Mini suggesting that the Powell-fueled sell-off has yet to run its course.
This week, investors will look for updates from the SEC v Ripple case, which could heighten XRP volatility. In particular, investors await a Court decision on the SEC objection vis-à-vis the Court denying the SEC motion to shield the Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege remains the key driver.
The SEC filed the objection over a month ago, meaning a decision could come at any time.
The former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, is a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case. In a famous 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.
Last month, XRP was unresponsive to the Court denying the SEC motion to shield the Hinman docs under the attorney-client privilege. However, a decision that the SEC cannot contest will likely have a material XRP price impact.
At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.48% to $0.32335.
An XRP move through the $0.3269 pivot would support a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3321 and the Sunday high of $0.33719.
XRP will need broader market support for a return to $0.33.
In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3423 and resistance at $0.3450.
The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.3577.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3167 in play. Barring another broad-based crypto sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3150 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3116.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.2962.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.
At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.34197. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMA. The price signals were bearish.
A further pullback of the 50-day EMA from the 200-day EMA would bring the Major Support Levels into play. However, a move through R1 ($0.3321) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.34197) and R2 ($0.3423).
A court ruling in favor of Ripple would break down the day’s resistance levels and support a move through $0.35 to target a return to $0.40.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.