Canada Small Business Sentiment

The CFIB’s Business Barometer long-term index in Canada, which tracks 12-month business outlooks, fell to 54.6 in January 2025 from 56.4 in the previous month, reflecting a decline in optimism. The short-term optimism index, based on a 3-month outlook, rose slightly to 49.2. US tariff threats reversed the positive trend seen until November, leading to a 5-point drop in long-term confidence. Exporting small businesses saw a significant drop in optimism (-8.1 points), and importing SMEs also experienced a decline (-3.3 points). Most sectors reported a decline in optimism, with retail (+6.9 points), health and education (+5.2 points), transportation (+4.2 points), and hospitality (+1.5 points) showing some improvement. However, these gains only brought sectors close to their historical averages, not signaling sustained growth.