Canadian Employment in August Increased More than Expected; Unemployment Rate Steady

Highlights

• Employment grows by 40,000; overshadowed by population surge.
• Core-aged individuals witness notable job gains.
• Unemployment remains static at 5.5% in August.

Employment Rises

Canadian employment in August rose by 40,000, marking a 0.2% increase. However, this growth was overshadowed by the population surge of 103,000, causing the employment rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points, settling at 61.9%. Notably, the employment rate’s decline indicates that job growth hasn’t matched the pace of population expansion. For context, from 2017 to 2019, the monthly average growth of the population aged 15 and older was 38,000. During that period, monthly employment gains of approximately 25,000 were necessary to maintain a steady employment rate.

Demographic Shifts in Employment

Employment trends varied across age groups. Core-aged individuals (25-54) witnessed growth, with men seeing a 33,000 increase and women experiencing a 21,000 rise in jobs. In contrast, employment dwindled for women aged 55 and above by 27,000. The youth employment scenario was mixed: while female youth employment surged by 32,000, their male counterparts faced a decline of 29,000.

Industry Landscape

August’s employment scenario shone in sectors like professional, scientific and technical services (+52,000) and construction (+34,000). Conversely, educational services and manufacturing sectors witnessed a dip, losing 44,000 and 30,000 jobs, respectively. Regionally, Alberta, British Columbia, and Prince Edward Island saw employment growth, whereas Nova Scotia faced a decline.

Unemployment Static Amidst Varied Patterns

Maintaining its position from the past month, August’s unemployment rate was steady at 5.5%. While the overall figure remained unchanged, variations existed among demographic groups. Core-aged women experienced a 0.4 percentage point drop in unemployment, while male youth faced a 2.5 percentage point hike. Comparatively, the past year recorded an unemployment rate rise of 1.6 and 1.9 percentage points for male and female youth, respectively.

Forecast: Monitoring Economic Pulse

The steady unemployment rate combined with employment gains being overshadowed by population growth warrants close monitoring. The current dynamics suggest potential challenges in achieving employment equilibrium if population growth consistently outpaces job creation. While certain sectors and demographics flourish, others require attention to ensure a balanced economy. Short-term sentiment tilts cautiously optimistic, given the diverse employment trends across demographics and sectors.