CB Consumer Confidence Falls Amid Recession Worries

Key Insights

• CB Consumer Confidence decreased from 106.1 in August to 103 in September. 
• Present Situation Index grew from 146.7 to 147.1.
• Expectations Index declined from 83.3 to 73.7.

On September 26, The Conference Board released CB Consumer Confidence report for September. The report indicated that Consumer Confidence declined from 106.1 in August to 103 in September, compared to analyst consensus of 105.5.

Present Situation Index increased from 146.7 in August to 147.1 in September, while Expectations Index declined from 83.3 to 73.7. The Conference Board noted that Expectations Index levels below 80 historically signaled a recession within the next year.

The Conference Board commented: “[…] consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular […] The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 74.5% probability that Fed will leave the interest rates unchanged at the next meeting in November. Traders expect that rates will stay unchanged until the end of the year, although the probability of a rate hike in December is rising.

U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the 106.00 level after the release of the report. Worries about a potential government shutdown provide support to the American currency.

Gold  is testing the support at $1900 – $1910 as traders focus on stronger dollar. Treasury yields are moving lower, but this move does not provide support to gold markets.

SP500 settled below the 4300 level as traders reacted to the disappointing CB Consumer Confidence report. Recession worries put pressure on major indices.

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