German Trade Surplus Narrows in April on 2% Jump in Imports

By:

Updated: Jun 7, 2024, 06:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

In April, the German trade surplus narrowed from €22.3 billion to €22.1 billion.
Exports increased by 1.6% in April, with imports rising by 2.0%.
German industrial production fell by 0.1% in April after a 0.4% decline in March.

German Trade Surplus Narrows as Exports Decline

In April, the German trade surplus narrowed from €22.3 billion to €22.1 billion. Economists expected a trade surplus of €22.6 billion.

Furthermore, exports increased by 1.6% in April after rising by 0.9% in March. Imports were up 2.0% after a March increase of 0.3%.

German Industrial Production

German industrial production fell by 0.1% in April after declining by 0.4% in March.

ECB Monetary Policy Impact Analysis

The industrial production numbers and trade data are unlikely to influence the ECB rate path. After the ECB reduced interest rates, wage growth and inflation will likely remain the focal points.

Nevertheless, the April trade data supported the expectations of an improving euro area macroeconomic environment. Upward trends in imports and exports signal a pickup in demand.

EUR/USD Reaction to German Data

Before the German economic indicators, the EUR/USD fell to a low of $1.08867 before climbing to a high of $1.08978.

In response to the German statistics, the EUR/USD rose to a high of $1.08908 before falling to a low of $1.08882.

On Friday, the EUR/USD was up 0.01% to $1.08884.

EUR/USD reaction to German trade data and industrial production numbers.

070624 EURUSD 3 Minute Chart

Up Next

The third estimate of Eurozone GDP and employment change figures will draw investor interest. Revisions to the second estimate numbers may influence buyer demand for the EUR/USD and DAX-listed stocks.

However, the US Jobs Report will impact the global financial markets more.

Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% in May after rising by 0.2% in April. Additionally, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k after an April increase of 175k.

A steady US unemployment rate of 3.9% could give wage growth greater influence on investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Upward wage trends could increase disposable income. Higher disposable income may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.