Initial Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected; Continuing Claims Highest Since 2021

Weekly Unemployment Claims Report: August 17, 2024

The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase in initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 17, 2024. The seasonally adjusted initial claims rose by 4,000 to 232,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 228,000. This increase signals slight cooling in the labor market as the economy navigates ongoing uncertainties.

Key Data Insights

• Initial Claims: The seasonally adjusted initial claims figure of 232,000 marks a 4,000 increase from the prior week. The previous week’s figure was revised upward by 1,000 claims, from 227,000 to 228,000. This change reflects minor adjustments in reporting but underscores a steady level of jobless claims.
• 4-Week Moving Average: The 4-week moving average, a more stable measure, decreased slightly by 750 to 236,000. The prior week’s average was revised up by 250 claims to 236,750. This small decline in the moving average suggests that while there are fluctuations week-to-week, the overall trend in claims remains relatively stable.
• Insured Unemployment Rate: The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2% for the week ending August 10. This rate has shown no change from the previous week, indicating a consistent level of ongoing claims relative to the labor force.
• Insured Unemployment: The total number of continued claims, also known as insured unemployment, increased by 4,000 to 1,863,000. This is the highest level since November 2021. The 4-week moving average of insured unemployment also increased to 1,865,500, suggesting a gradual rise in longer-term unemployment.

Unadjusted Claims Data

• Unadjusted Initial Claims: The unadjusted initial claims decreased by 9,270 (4.6%) to 191,576 in the week ending August 17, reflecting seasonal factors. Despite this decrease, the reduction was smaller than expected, suggesting some underlying weakness in labor demand.
• Unadjusted Insured Unemployment: For the week ending August 10, the unadjusted insured unemployment stood at 1,864,872, a decrease of 18,435 from the previous week. However, this decrease was less than anticipated, potentially indicating slower-than-expected improvements in employment conditions.

State-Level Observations

Notable increases in initial claims were observed in Georgia, Michigan, Virginia, New Jersey, and Kansas, while California, Texas, and Massachusetts saw significant declines. The highest insured unemployment rates were reported in New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island, each experiencing rates of 2.6% or higher.

Market Forecast

The current data suggests a cautious outlook for the labor market. While the slight increase in initial claims and insured unemployment indicates some softening, the steady insured unemployment rate and minor movements in the 4-week averages point to a labor market that, while facing pressures, is not experiencing drastic changes. Traders should monitor upcoming labor reports for signs of sustained trends that could impact economic forecasts and market sentiment.