S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Hits New High in April 2024

Overview

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a key measure of U.S. home prices, reached another record high in April 2024. Despite this, the rate of price increases has slowed compared to previous months, indicating a potential market stabilization.

Year-Over-Year Performance

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index saw a 6.3% annual increase, down from an 8.3% rise in March. The 20-City Composite Index posted a 7.2% year-over-year gain, a slight decrease from the 7.5% increase previously recorded. San Diego led with a 10.3% annual rise, followed by New York at 9.4% and Chicago at 8.7%. Portland experienced the smallest growth, with just a 1.7% annual increase.

Month-Over-Month Performance

The U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite all showed slower growth rates. The National Index increased by 1.2%, the 20-City by 1.36%, and the 10-City by 1.38%. After adjusting for seasonal variations, the National Index and 10-City Composite both rose by 0.3%, while the 20-City Composite increased by 0.4%.

Analysis

Brian D. Luke of S&P Dow Jones Indices highlighted that the National Index has seen consecutive monthly increases of at least 1%, mirroring early 2023 trends. Thirteen markets are now at all-time highs, with San Diego showing the highest annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast has also been a strong performer, particularly New York, which saw a 9.4% annual increase. However, only half of the markets are currently accelerating in price gains, and the annual growth rate has decelerated from earlier in the year.

FHFA House Price Index

In a related report, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) noted a 0.2% rise in house prices from March to April 2024, with an annual increase of 6.3%. Regional variations ranged from a -0.2% change in the West South Central and Middle Atlantic divisions to a +1.4% increase in the East South Central division. Over the past year, the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions saw the highest increases at 8.5%.

Market Forecast

Given the deceleration in the rate of home price increases and signs of market normalization, the short-term outlook for the U.S. housing market is bearish. Rising mortgage rates and increasing housing inventory suggest that prices may continue to stabilize or even decline in the coming months.