S&P CoreLogic HPI Hits Record Highs in July 2024, But Price Gains Are Slowing

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Hits Record Highs in July 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reached a new all-time high in July 2024, marking 14 consecutive months of record growth. However, home price increases have begun to slow, signaling potential cooling in the housing market.

Year-Over-Year Price Growth Slows

The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 5.0% increase compared to July 2023, down from 5.5% in June. The 10-City Composite saw a 6.8% gain, while the 20-City Composite rose 5.9%, both also lower than the previous month’s figures.

New York led with an 8.8% annual gain, followed by Las Vegas at 8.2% and Los Angeles at 7.2%. Portland had the smallest increase at 0.8%, unchanged from June.

Month-Over-Month Growth Flat

Month-over-month, the U.S. National Index increased by only 0.1% before seasonal adjustment. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites were flat. After seasonal adjustments, the national index rose 0.2%, while both composites saw a modest 0.3% increase. Eight of the 20 tracked cities recorded monthly price declines.

Low-Priced Homes Lead Gains

Homes in the lower price tiers continue to outperform. Tampa’s low-tier properties gained 88% over five years, while New York’s low-price segment drove an annual increase of 10.8%. However, high-price tiers in cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles are also performing well, benefiting wealthier homeowners but complicating entry for first-time buyers.

Regional and National Trends

The Northeast remains the best-performing region, with New York topping the market for the third straight month. The Midwest also saw all-time highs, while the South experienced slower growth, though it includes several top-performing markets since 2020.

The FHFA reported a 0.1% rise in U.S. home prices in July, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Growth was strongest in the East North Central and New England regions.

Market Forecast: Cooling Ahead

While home prices continue to rise, the pace is slowing. With declining mortgage rates, affordability may improve, but overall growth is likely to remain modest. The short-term outlook is cautiously bullish, especially for lower-priced homes.