The Week Ahead – Russia, Central Banks, and Private Sector PMIs in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 43 stats due out through the week ending 25^th March. In the week prior, 59 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

On Thursday, core durable goods, private sector PMIs, and jobless claims will be key.

Expect the services PMI and jobless claims to draw the greatest interest.

Following last week’s projections and rate hike, FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring.

On the monetary policy front, FED Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday and Wednesday

In the week ending 18^th March, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.90% to 98.233.

For the EUR:

Prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be in focus on Thursday. Expect Germany and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be key.

On Friday, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index figures will also provide direction.

ECB President Lagarde’s speeches on Monday and Tuesday and the ECB Economic Bulletin on Thursday will also draw plenty of interest.

For the week, the EUR rallied by 1.27% to $1.1051.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead.

Mid-week, inflation figures for February will draw interest ahead of private sector PMIs on Thursday.

Expect the inflation and services PMI to be the key stats.

At the end of the week, retail sales figures will also provide direction, however.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak ahead of the Autumn budget on Wednesday.

The Pound rose by 1.08% to end the week at $1.3178.

For the Loonie:

Economic data is limited to RMPI numbers for February. We don’t expect too much influence from the figures, however.

Crude oil prices and market risk sentiment will remain the key drivers.

The Loonie ended the week up 1.11% to C$1.2603 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

There are no material stats to provide the Aussie Dollar with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Aussie Dollar in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

The Aussie Dollar jumped by 1.67% to $0.7415.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Trade data will be in focus at the start of the week, with consumer confidence figures mid-week.

Both sets of numbers will provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction in the first half of the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 1.45% to $0.6908.

For the Japanese Yen:

In a shortened week, private sector PMI and Tokyo inflation figures for March are the only stats to consider. With the numbers due out on Thursday and Friday, market risk sentiment and monetary policy divergence will remain the key drivers.

The Japanese Yen slid by 1.60% to end the week at ¥119.170 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

There are no material stats due out of China to provide the markets with direction.

While there are no stats due out, the PBoC is in action on Monday. Following stimulus from Beijing, a cut in loan prime rates would support riskier assets.

In the week ending 18^th March, the Yuan fell by 0.35% to end the week at 6.3612 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead, with the markets now looking for progress towards a ceasefire.