UK Wage Growth and Jobless Rate Rise, Fueling BoE Rate Path Uncertainty

Labor Market Overview, UK – November 2024

The latest UK labor market data has stirred fresh debate on the Bank of England’s next move—could stronger wages and higher unemployment signal a policy pivot in December?

In September, the UK unemployment rate increased from 4.0% in August to 4.3%, while average earnings (including bonus) increased by 4.3% in the three months to September 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, up from 3.9% in August.

Data from the Office for National Statistics highlighted several key trends:

• The number of payrolled UK employees declined by 9,000 over the quarter. However, payrolled employees increased by 182,000 compared to September 2023.
• Job vacancies declined by 35,000 from August 2024 to October 2024, marking the 28th consecutive period of falling vacancies.
• Claimant counts increased by 26,700 in October after rising by a downwardly revised 10,100 in September.

Higher Wages Align with BoE’s Inflation Outlook

September’s upswing in average earnings (including bonus) aligned with the BoE’s expectation of persistent inflationary pressures. On November 7, the BoE voted 8-1 in favor of cutting interest rates by 25 bps to 4.75%.

However, the BoE projected inflation to reach 2.75% in 2025, well above its 2% target, which may lead to a more cautious approach regarding further rate cuts. The BoE attributed the higher inflation forecast to the Government budget, which may drive near-term growth and inflation.

Higher wages may boost disposable income, potentially fueling consumer spending and demand-driven inflation, further complicating BoE plans for monetary policy normalization.

Although softer labor market conditions typically curb wage growth and inflation, the 4.3% unemployment rate remains relatively low. Current unemployment levels may continue to support private consumption and sustain inflationary pressures.

Expert Views on the UK Labor Market and Bank of England Rate Path

James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, remarked on the November BoE rate cut, stating,

“As expected, BoE cuts rates to 4.75% the second rate cut since inflation started falling sharply. Key issue for today is what the BoE is saying about future rate cuts, particularly in light of the inflationary effects of the Budget.”

James concluded,

“So, for now at least, we remain on this path of slow path of BoE rate cuts. Based on where we are today, the Budget means rates cd be cut more slowly than previously expected. BUT, if domestic inflation continues to fall back, we will end up with faster rate cuts.

GBP/USD Response to the UK Labor Market Data

Ahead of the September UK labor market report, the GBP/USD briefly climbed to a high of $1.28733 before dropping to a pre-report low of $1.28147.

After the release of the UK Labor Market Overview Report, the GBP/USD rose to a high of $1.28290 before falling to a low of $1.28125.

On Tuesday, November 12, the GBP/USD was down 0.40% to $1.28162.