ADA Price Prediction: Failure to Hit $0.425 Leaves Sub-$0.415 in View

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, cardano (ADA) extended its losing streak to four sessions with a 0.47% decline to $0.422.
• Fed fear continued weighing on ADA and the broader crypto market. Adding to the downside was the latest IOHK development update.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA below the 50-day EMA to leave sub-$0.40 in play.

On Saturday, ADA slipped by 0.47%. Following a 1.17% fall on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.422. The Saturday loss extended the ADA losing streak to four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA strike a mid-morning high of $0.428. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.429 and $0.430, ADA slid to a late low of $0.419. ADA briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.420 before a partial recovery to $0.422.

Input Output HK delivered its weekly development update overnight on Friday, which failed to impress. The lack of an influx of projects onto the Cardano network left ADA in the hands of the broader market sentiment.

Fed Fear and the Weekly IOHK Update Leave ADA in Negative Territory

Bearish crypto investor sentiment from Friday spilled over to the Saturday session. Friday’s US jobs report continued resonating, with market bets of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December hitting risk appetite.

With the US unemployment rate falling to 3.5%, the Fed has more wriggle room to front load interest rates to bring inflation to target. However, with the Fed set to lift rates by 75-basis points in November, another 75-basis-point rate hike in December could question whether the Fed can avoid a hard landing.

To date, US economic indicators have remained positive. However, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have issued warnings of the impact of synchronized central bank monetary policy tightening on the global economy.

Despite the bearish mood, the Saturday loss was modest. Nonetheless, the post-Vasil hard fork downward trend continues. ADA is down 12.5% since the post-Vasil hard fork high of $0.482 on September 23. By contrast, the total crypto market cap is down just 1.19%.

Going into Saturday, network updates failed to provide ADA price support. On Friday, Input Output HK released its weekly development report as of 2022-10-07. Highlights included,

• Cardano node tests documentation is now open source.
• Daedalus team is finalizing work to release v.5.1.0.
• 102 projects launched on Cardano, up from 100 in the previous week.
• 1,117 projects are building on Cardano, up from 1,113.
• The total number of transactions increased from 50.4 million to 51.3 million.

The Cardano ecosystem has yet to see the influx of projects in the post-Vasil hard fork era, despite the numbers trending higher.

Recently, Hoskinson talked about hundreds of projects considering the Cardano network after the mainnet hard fork. These would need to materialize to support a sustained ADA breakout.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 0.24% to $0.421.

A range-bound start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.419 before returning to a day high of $0.422.

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.423 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.427 and the Saturday high of $0.428. Sentiment from the broader crypto market would need to improve for a breakout from $0.425.

In the case of a breakout session, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.432 and $0.435 would likely come into view. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.441.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.418 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.410. The Second Major Support Level at $0.414 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.405.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.429. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through R1 ($0.427) and the 50-day EMA ($0.429) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.432). The 200-day EMA sits at $0.450. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.429) would likely see ADA fall through S1 ($0.418) to give the bears a run at sub-$0.415.