Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook: Bullish After Record ETF Inflows Boost Market Sentiment

Bitcoin-Spot ETF Inflows Surge on Trade Developments

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped 0.04% on Saturday, April 26, after gaining 0.82% on Friday to close at $94,736. Significantly, BTC ended a seven-day winning streak.

Despite Saturday’s loss, trade developments have boosted demand for risk assets, including BTC, as President Trump signaled a softer stance on China. Notably, the seven-day winning streak featured a 6.7% rally on April 22, when Trump pledged to be ‘very nice to China.’

BTC-spot ETF flow trends reflected improved market sentiment. According to Farside Investors, total net inflows soared $3,033 million for the week ending April 25, the largest since launching in January 2024. Key flow trends included:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net inflows of $1,445.7 million, its biggest haul since the week ending December 20.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net inflows of $621.1 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $573.8 million.
• Nine of the 11 BTC-spot ETF issuers registered net inflows for the week.

Market intelligence platform Santiment noted:

“As Bitcoin has recovered as high as $95.8K today, we are seeing the highest week of net inflows to BTC ETFs since the week before Trump’s inauguration in mid-January. Institutions like Blackrock have played a large part in the crypto-wide bounce traders were waiting for.”

IBIT’s inflows underscored BlackRock’s dominance in the ETF space. Since launching on January 11, 2024, IBIT has reported net inflows of $41,200, helping offset the $22,688 million GBTC outflows. FBTC ranks second, with $11,865 million in net inflows.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

Several key factors will dictate BTC’s near-term trajectory:

• Global trade risks: An escalation in the US-China trade war could impact risk sentiment, weighing on BTC and the broader crypto market.
• Macroeconomic indicators: US labor market and inflation data will influence the Fed rate path. Softer data may boost Fed rate cut bets and BTC demand.
• The Bitcoin Act: If passed, the bill could tilt the supply-demand balance firmly in BTC’s favor.
• US BTC-spot ETF market flows: Spot ETF flow trends remain a critical barometer of market sentiment and price trends.

Key BTC Price Scenarios include:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, rising Fed rate cut bets, legislative progress on the Bitcoin Act, and continued ETF inflows may drive BTC toward $100,000.
• Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, a hawkish Fed, legislative gridlock, or ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $80,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A break above the April 25 high of $95,866 could signal a move toward $100,000. A decisive move through $100,000 may pave the way to the all-time high of $109,312.
• Downside Risk: A drop below the $90,742 support level may enable the bears to target the 50-day EMA and potentially the $86,263 support level.

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Turning to ethereum (ETH), ETH-spot ETF flows and US tariff policies remain key near-term price drivers. The US ETH-spot ETF market reported net inflows of $157.1 million, supporting ETH’s break above $1,750.

Nevertheless, ETH continues trading below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming a bearish bias.

• Upside target: A break above the 50-day EMA could signal a move to $2,000. A push through $2,000 would bring the $2,308 resistance level into view.
• Downside risks: If ETH drops below $1,750, the April 22 low of $1,538 would be the next key support level.

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path toward $100,000 faces hurdles, including US-China trade tensions, monetary policy uncertainty, and legislative risks. However, ETF inflows, evolving economic data, and regulatory developments will remain key drivers of market sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.