BTC Price Analysis: Strategic Reserve Speculation Fuels $200K Projections

BTC Approaches $100k but Falls Short Again

On Saturday, January 4, BTC advanced by 0.21%, following Friday’s 1.09% gain, closing at $98,081 – the highest since December 25. However, BTC fell short of the crucial $100k psychological threshold for the sixteenth consecutive session.

ETF Market Highlights Mixed Sentiment

The US BTC-spot ETF market reflected investor caution going into 2025. End-of-year profit-taking likely impacted demand as investors considered the potential shifts in the US government’s stance on cryptos. According to Farside Investors:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $275.4 million in the week ending January 3.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net inflows of $201.5 million.
• However, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) registered its largest weekly outflow of $139.5 million since launching on January 11, 2024.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) also saw weekly net outflows.

Despite outflows from BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported weekly net inflows of $256 million. The weekly inflows bolstered BTC demand, while IBIT’s outflows left the BTC price below $100k.

Strategic Speculation and Supply-Demand Trends

On Friday, MicroStrategy (MSTR) founder and Chairman Michael Saylor shared the firm’s BTC strategy for Q1 2025, saying,

“MicroStrategy targets up to $2 billion capital raise through public offerings of perpetual preferred stock in the first quarter of 2025.”

There were no details on the allocation for BTC acquisitions, pending the SEC registration statement. Perpetual preferred stockholders received dividends indefinitely unless MicroStrategy redeems the shares.

Saylor shared the news amid increasing speculation about the US government agreeing to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

On Thursday, Anthony Scaramucci fueled speculation about an SBR, saying the US government might imminently purchase 500k BTC. Scaramucci believes Trump has the support of the Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and potentially the under-60 years of age Democrats.

Congress, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the President must approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset. If Trump, Congress, and the Treasury Department are aligned, the Fed could be Trump’s final hurdle toward an SBR.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projected BTC to move above $200k by December 2025. The CIO attributed the bullish forecast to demand outstripping supply. Hougan cited ETFs, public companies, and governments fueling demand.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Following a five-day rally, BTC sits comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish price signals.

A return to Saturday’s high of $98,640 could signal a move toward $100k, a crucial psychological resistance level. Furthermore, a break above $100k could enable the bulls to target its all-time high of $108,231.

Investors should consider US government-related activity and US BTC-spot ETF market-related news.

Conversely, a BTC break below $95k could indicate a drop to the $90,742 support level. A fall through the $90,742 support level may enable the bears to target the $86,263 support level.

With a 53.70 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC could return to its $108,231 all-time high before entering overbought territory (RSI above 70).

To access real-time BTC price data and technical indicators, click here to learn more.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, sits above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

An ETH return to $3,800 would support a move toward the $4,085 resistance level. A break above the $4,085 resistance level could bring the $4,200 level into sight.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial to near-term price moves.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,563 support level could signal a drop to the 50-day EMA. A fall through the 50-day EMA may enable the bears to target the $3,287 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 56.08, indicates an ETH rise to the $4,085 resistance level before entering overbought territory. (RSI above 70).

Stay Informed on Crypto Trends

Track Bitcoin’s journey back to $100k and stay updated on key market drivers like ETF flows, regulatory updates, and macroeconomic data here to manage risks effectively.