BTC Price Forecast: Can ETF Demand Push Bitcoin Beyond $100K?

BTC Hovers Below $98k After the Bruising Fed Projections

On Saturday, December 21, BTC declined by 0.63%, reversing Friday’s 0.43% gain to close at $97,505. BTC fell short of $100k for the second successive session, reflecting investor caution.

ETF Inflows Support Market Sentiment but Raise Questions

The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to three weeks in the week ending December 20, with net inflows of $457 million. However, back-to-back daily outflows weighed on BTC demand as investors reacted to Wednesday’s Fed rate cut and projections.

According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $1,447 million in the week ending December 20.
• However, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $293.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had net outflows of $248 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) also registered sizeable outflows.

While BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT remains a market anchor, Friday’s outflows, the first since November 6, caused concern.

On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates but signaled fewer than-expected 2025 rate cuts, impacting demand for riskier assets, including crypto.

Will US Crypto-Spot ETF Launches Boost BTC Demand?

On Friday, the SEC approved BTC/ETH-hybrid-spot ETFs, introducing products with an 80-20 weighting between BTC and ETH. ETF Store President Nate Geraci announced the approval, saying,

“SEC has *approved* both the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF & Franklin Crypto Index ETF… Will initially hold both BTC & ETH.”

Geraci added,

“Will be interesting to see if BlackRock or others attempt to piggyback on this & launch similar ETFs… Regardless, I expect there will be meaningful demand for these products. Advisors LOVE diversification. Especially in an emerging asset class such as crypto.”

Demand for the two crypto-spot ETFs could be crucial to BTC and ETH price trends. Currently, BlackRock’s IBIT is bolstering the BTC-spot ETF market. If diversification is the key, the pair could target new highs.

Bullish Outlook Tied to Strategic BTC Reserve Developments

Looking ahead, progress toward a US strategic BTC reserve (SBR) remains pivotal to BTC breaking new highs. However, the Trump administration will need Congress, the Federal Reserve, US Treasury Department to approve BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

If approved, the US government would become a BTC HODLER, mitigating oversupply risk. The US government has a 198,109 BTC stockpile ($19.13 billion), exposing the crypto market to potential sales.

However, until SBR progress accelerates, BTC price trends will hinge on ETF demand, US economic data, and Fed policy signals. A rebound in spot ETF market inflows, boosted by US data and Fed rate cut bets, may drive BTC above $100k. However, upbeat US data and ETF outflows could further pressure BTC, potentially dragging BTC below $90k.

Key US data in the week ahead include consumer confidence and jobless claims.

Dive deeper into the influence of spot ETF market flows on price action. Follow our analysis and forecasts to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite the recent reversal, BTC remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish price signals.

A break above December 5’s all-time high of $103,630 could enable the bulls to target $110k. A breakout from $110k could bring $120k into play.

Investors should consider trends in US economic indicators, US BTC-spot ETF market-related news, US government sales, and Trump-related news.

Conversely, a drop below $95,000 may signal a fall toward the $90,742 support level. A break below the $90,742 support level could enable the bears to target the $86,263 support level.

With a 49.34 14-day RSI reading, BTC could fall to the $90,742 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, sits below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs send bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

An ETH break above the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $3,563 resistance level. A breakout from the $3,563 resistance level could enable the bulls to retarget the $4,085 resistance level.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends will be crucial to near-term price moves.

Conversely, an ETH break below the $3,287 support level could bring the 200-day EMA and the $3,000 level into play.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 40.60, suggests ETH may fall to the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

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