Dax Index News: Forecast Brightens as German Earnings and Trade Hopes Lift Sentiment

DAX Climbs on Earnings Beat, Trade Talks Revive Risk Appetite

The DAX extended its winning streak to three sessions on Thursday, April 24, rising 0.47% to 22,064, its highest close since April 2.

President Trump’s softer stance on China tariffs drove demand for risk assets. Trump countered claims from Beijing that negotiations had yet to resume, stating that talks took place on April 24.

Corporate earnings and German economic data also supported the appetite for German-listed stocks.

Autos Rally on Strong Earnings and Car Sales

German automakers advanced on April 24 as investors reacted to better-than-expected earnings from Renault and car sales data. Porsche and BMW advanced 1.96% and 1.58%, respectively. Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz Group, and Daimler Truck Holding also posted gains.

German new battery electric car sales surged 39% in Q1 2025, while new EU registrations of German hybrid-electric cars increased 10.5%.

Adidas rallied 2.52% after reporting above-consensus sales and profits.

German Business Sentiment Lifts Investor Confidence

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index increased unexpectedly to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 in March and above an expected 85.2. While the outlook remained cautious amid tariff risks, sentiment toward current conditions improved. The modest decline in the Expectations Index hinted at optimism for a potential trade agreement, contributing to DAX gains.

US Markets Extend Gains on Trade Prospects

US equity markets extended their winning streak to three sessions on Thursday, April 24, as President Trump fueled hopes of a US-China trade deal.

Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rallying 2.74%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 advanced 1.23% and 2.03%, respectively.

US Inflation Data and Fed Outlook in Focus

On Friday, April 25, the finalized University of Michigan Consumer Survey will draw interest. According to the preliminary survey, the Inflation Expectations Index surged from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, while the Sentiment Index tumbled to 50.8 in April, down from 57. Higher inflation may delay Fed cuts, while weaker sentiment points to softening demand, raising stagflation risks.

A higher inflation print and lower sentiment reading could test risk sentiment. Conversely, a lower inflation expectations reading may ease fears of a Fed policy hold, boosting risk appetite.

Meanwhile, trade developments and central bank signals remain critical for risk assets. A de-escalation in the US-EU and US-China trade wars could fuel demand for German-listed stocks. However, renewed trade frictions could trigger a market sell-off.

DAX Outlook: Watching Macro and Central Bank Cues

The DAX’s near-term trajectory hinges on inflation data, central bank guidance, and tariff-related headlines.

Potential DAX Scenarios:

• Bullish Case: Easing trade tensions, softer US inflation expectations, or dovish central bank rhetoric could push the DAX toward 22,500.
• Bearish Case: Rising trade tensions, higher inflation expectations, or hawkish central bank guidance may pull the DAX toward 21,500.

As of Friday morning, the DAX futures were up 99 points, while the Nasdaq 100 mini gained 98 points, indicating a positive open.

Technical Setup: Cautious Optimism

According to the daily chart, the DAX trades above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A break above the April 24 high of 22,082 could support a move toward 22,500. A decisive move through 22,500 may bring the record high of 23,476 into play.
• Downside risk: A drop below the 50-day EMA may test support at 21,350, with sub-21,000 levels back in view if selling intensifies.

Conclusion: Monitor Macro Themes

DAX investors should monitor global trade rhetoric, US economic data, and central bank guidance. These themes will likely steer sentiment and dictate direction in the sessions ahead.

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