BTC Price Forecast: US Tariffs and Fed Policy End Six-Week ETF Inflow Streak

Bitcoin Hovers Below $100k Amid ETF Outflows

On Saturday, February 15, bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.14%, following Friday’s 0.93% gain, closing at $97,706. BTC moved within a narrow $1k range as investors assessed supply-demand dynamics and price trajectory.

Fed policy expectations and US BTC-spot ETF outflows kept BTC below the critical $100K mark.

US Data Dampens Fed Rate Cut Expectations

US economic indicators influenced BTC demand in the week ending February 14. The US CPI Report and Fed Chair Powell signaled a higher-for-longer Fed rate path. The annual core inflation rate unexpectedly rose from 3.2% in December to 3.3% in January. Fed Chair Powell responded to the data while testifying on Capitol Hill, saying the Fed is not done yet with its inflation fight.

Notably, BTC reacted negatively to Wednesday’s US CPI Report, sliding to a low of $94,118 before finding support.

Despite softer US producer prices and retail sales, the probability of a June Fed rate cut fell from 52.5% (February 7) to 41.3% (February 14), weighing on BTC demand.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Ends Six-Week Inflow Streak

Sentiment toward the Fed rate path also affected BTC-spot ETF flow trends. The US BTC-spot ETF market saw $580.2 million in net outflows in the week ending February 14. Significantly, the spot ETF market ended a six-week inflow streak. According to Farside Investors, key flow trends for the week included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $282.2 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $162.9 million.
• However, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) bucked the broader market trend, recording net inflows of $105.6 million.
• Nine of the eleven issuers registered net outflows, reflecting investor caution.

Despite the recent outflows, cumulative BTC-spot ETF inflows have reached $16.5 billion since Trump’s 2024 campaign announcement, up from $6.26 billion in the equivalent prior period.

Bitcoin Act and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Speculation about a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) remains a tailwind, driving demand for BTC-spot ETFs since Trump’s election win. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act in late 2024, proposing the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a mandatory holding period of 20 years.

Since then, US states Utah and New Hampshire have introduced legislation for a state-level SBR. Other states are also exploring an SBR. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, highlighted the potential impact of state-level SBRs, stating;

“We analyzed 20 state-level Bitcoin reserve bills. If enacted, they could drive $23 billion in buying, or 247k BTC. This sum is independent of any pension fund allocations, likely to rise if legislators move forward.”

The research omitted the US State of Utah, where the House recently passed an SBR bill, leaving the Senate with the final vote.

State-level legislation for SBRs could boost the chances of a national SBR, potentially driving BTC to unprecedented levels. Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton recently commented on the potential impact of a US SBR:

“If the US Government (USG) passes Senator Lummis’ Bill and begins buying BTC, it will no doubt cause other nations to follow suit, just like with gold. It could literally create Nation State FOMO, and if that occurs, $1M per BTC happens a lot faster than people think.”

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariffs, Fed policy, SBR progress, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: US BTC-spot ETF inflows and progress toward a US SBR could offset a hawkish Fed and US tariff threats, driving BTC beyond the record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: A lack of progress toward an SBR, tariff escalation, and a hawkish Fed could pull BTC toward $90k.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action.

Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite this week’s gains, BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bearish price signals.

A BTC break above the 50-day EMA would signal a potential breakout, bringing the crucial $100K level into play. If BTC returns to $100k, the bulls may target the all-time high of $109,312 next.

Conversely, if BTC drops below $95K, it could signal a fall toward the $90,742 support level.

With a 47.25 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may slide below the $90,742 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by exploring real-time BTC price data and indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, still ranking above XRP as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $2,815 resistance level could bring the 50-day and 200-day EMAs into play. A break above the EMAs may signal a move toward the $3,287 resistance level.

ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a drop below $2,500 could allow the bears to target the $2,308 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 39.25 indicates ETH may drop below $2,500 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s path to $110,000 remains uncertain as traders monitor shifts in the Fed rate path, Trump’s tariffs, and spot ETF flows. Macroeconomic conditions and US crypto policies will continue to dictate market sentiment.

Stay ahead of crypto market trends with real-time data and expert insights here.