Can Cardano (ADA) Rebound to $1 Amid Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause?

The cryptocurrency held onto most gains despite some short-term profit-taking among traders. This coincided with the European Union’s decision to pause its planned metals counter-tariffs against the US for the same 90-day duration.

Cardano Technical Outlook Improves Following Tariff Pause

ADA’s rebound aligns with a long-serving technical support, a rising trendline constituting a broader ascending channel. As a result of this fractal pattern, the cryptocurrency can realistically rebound toward $1, a level it last touched in March.

The channel’s lower trendline further aligns with the 50-2W exponential moving average (50-2W EMA; the red wave), offering a double-layered support for a potential rebound.

In previous instances, a bounce from the channel’s lower trendline has triggered a rally toward the upper trendline target. Should the fractal repeat, ADA’s price may head toward $1.40, coinciding with the 1.00 Fibonacci retracement line.

A recovering RSI hovering near neutral territory further supports the short-term bullish structure. Should this positive momentum continue, reclaiming the $1 psychological level seems possible, particularly if macro sentiment remains supportive during the 90-day tariff truce.

But What If Tariff Talks Break Down?

If the trade ceasefire unravels or stalls entirely, downside risks for ADA could accelerate. A break below the ascending channel support would invalidate the bullish setup and potentially expose Cardano to deeper losses, with $0.34 (near the 0.236 Fib level) emerging as the next target.

It’s also worth noting that crypto markets tend to mirror broader equity sentiment.

Despite a near 10% surge in the S&P 500 on April 9, the odds of the index ending the year positively remain historically low. Out of 16 instances when the S&P fell 15% or more within a year, only three ended in gains—all under conditions of aggressive Federal Reserve intervention.

This time, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear: rate cuts aren’t on the table yet. Inflation risks from Trump’s sweeping trade policy loom large, limiting the central bank’s willingness to support markets like it did in 2020 or 2009.

For crypto traders, the takeaway is caution. While ADA’s technicals suggest a rebound, the macro backdrop remains fragile, and without Fed intervention, history warns that risk assets may continue to struggle.