Oil News: Iran Sanctions Threaten Supply While Geopolitical Tensions Build

Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Tight Margins Anchor Crude Oil Price Outlook

Crude oil is trading in a tight range as traders assess a mix of bullish and bearish drivers. Mounting geopolitical risks, souring trade relations, and fragile U.S. production economics are all weighing on sentiment. While Iranian supply threats are pushing prices higher, global demand uncertainty and U.S. cost pressures are keeping gains in check.

On Friday, Light Crude Oil Futures settled at $61.50, up $1.43 or +2.38%.

Iran Sanctions Threaten Global Oil Supply

The prospect of renewed U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports is injecting bullish momentum into crude prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s declaration that the U.S. “can stop Iran’s export of oil” signals a return to the Trump-era “maximum pressure” campaign. Iran currently exports over 1 million barrels per day, mostly to China. A disruption at that scale would substantially tighten global supply.

Compounding the risk is the fragile state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, with threats of military escalation on the table. This geopolitical tension is putting a floor under prices, even as other headwinds emerge. Any shift in the sanctions policy or signs of military action could trigger sharp price spikes, making Iranian supply developments a critical watchpoint for traders.

U.S.-China Tariffs Weigh on Demand Outlook

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are casting a bearish shadow over global oil demand. China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs followed a 145% hike from the U.S., raising fears of slower economic activity. The Energy Information Administration has already trimmed global demand forecasts, and ANZ analysts warn of a potential 1% drop in oil consumption if global GDP growth dips below 3%.

With markets already rattled, crude has struggled to recover from recent selloffs. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen noted the damage from trade disruptions is already priced in, leaving crude vulnerable to further downside on weak macro data. For traders, every tariff announcement is now a price-moving headline.

U.S. Producers Struggle as Margins Squeeze

Lower crude prices are squeezing U.S. shale producers. A Dallas Fed survey shows breakeven levels averaging $65 per barrel, but prices have slipped toward $55. Factoring in dividends, debt, and rising equipment costs from tariffs, true profitability may be even lower.

Rig counts are down by over 380 since their peak, and further reductions are likely unless prices rebound. Some executives warn of 10–50% rig cuts if current pricing holds. While this curtails near-term output, it sets up a possible supply squeeze later. With U.S. production currently near 13.55 million barrels per day, any slowdown could eventually lift prices.

Oil Prices Forecast: Rangebound Near-Term, Bullish Risk Ahead

Crude remains stuck between $59.23 and $63.70, with technical resistance near $68.41 and $69.66. In the near term, geopolitical risks are clashing with weak demand sentiment, keeping prices rangebound. But if Iran barrels are effectively cut off or U.S. production falls sharply, the balance could tip bullish.

Traders should stay nimble, tracking Iranian supply risks, tariff developments, and domestic output signals. While downside risks persist, the supply side could ultimately tighten enough to support a bullish reversal.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.