Silver (XAG) Forecast: Eyes on $32.49—Break Above 50-Day MA Could Ignite Rally

Silver Rises on Technical Break, But Gold and China Cast a Shadow

Silver rallied strongly on Friday, clearing its 200-day moving average at $30.92 and pressing into a critical resistance zone between $31.45 and $32.19. This level—marked by a confluence of retracement targets—could define near-term momentum.

A firm move above $32.19 would likely attract more upside interest, with the next targets between $34.59 and $34.87. However, any weakness below $31.45 would likely invite short-term profit-taking, keeping the market in a tight tactical range.

On Friday, XAG/USD settled at $32.31, up $1.08 or +3.46%.

Gold Surge Lends Support, But Divergence Persists

Gold’s breakout

above $3,200 on the same day gave silver a tailwind, but the grey metal continues to underperform its yellow counterpart. The bullish breakout in gold was driven by a perfect storm of dollar weakness, rising trade tensions, and renewed safe-haven demand. However, silver’s more industrial nature—and heavier reliance on physical demand from Asia—continues to cap rallies. Traders have noted that even record highs in gold have not translated into sustained silver strength, reflecting lingering concerns about underlying demand.

China Demand Remains a Drag

While gold is benefiting from global capital rotation into non-dollar assets, silver is weighed down by signals of weak industrial demand from China. Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions—now escalating with tit-for-tat tariff hikes—have added to pressure on China’s manufacturing sector. That’s a headwind for silver, which depends more heavily on electronics, solar, and industrial applications than gold. Until Chinese demand improves, silver’s rallies are likely to be met with hesitation at key resistance levels.

Technical Picture in Focus

Technically, silver’s intermediate trend is now governed by the 50-day moving average at $32.49, while the long-term trend remains anchored by the 200-day at $30.92. Friday’s advance into the $31.45–$32.19 range puts traders on alert: strength above this band could trigger a larger move toward $34.59. But without fresh bullish catalysts, the market may stall at this zone on the first test.

Market Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish with Caution at Resistance

Silver has broken key technical ground and benefits from gold’s strength, but macro headwinds—especially around China’s demand outlook—limit immediate upside. The market needs to hold above $31.45 and break cleanly over $32.19 to attract momentum buying. Until then, expect two-way trade with a cautious upside bias. A clean close above the 50-day moving average would confirm bullish control.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.