Crude oil markets have gapped to kick off the week, but then turned around to fill that gap, all things being equal, it looks like the crude oil market is going to continue to recover.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has gapped to kick off the trading week, only to turn around and fill that gap. By doing so, it looks like the market is trying to find support on dips, and I do think that there is a lot of support underneath that will continue to come into play. The 200-Day EMA sits underneath the Friday candlestick, as does the 50-Day EMA indicator. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of support, therefore I think the fact that the market pulls back occasionally should be thought of as a gift. However, if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then we could drop down to the $75 level on a more significant pullback.
Brent markets also have shown a bit of a gap to the upside, but then pulled back. All things being equal, we also have the OPEC production cuts that are causing headaches for supply, and I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon. If we can break above the $85 level, then we could see a little bit more momentum to the upside, perhaps opening up the $87.50 level. After the $87.50 level, then we have the possibility of a move to the $90 level.
If we turn around and break down below the 50-Week EMA, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $80 level. The $80 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where one would have to think there are a lot of option barriers. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of buyers on these dips, and it looks as if we have gone from the narrative of a lack of demand to a lack of supply. I think that continues to be the case, and you can even make an argument for a bullish flag being formed in general. All things being equal, this is a market that I do think goes higher given enough time.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.