Based on the early price action, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 23963.
June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are clawing back earlier losses, putting the market in a position to open higher. Today’s session is also the ninth day down from the recent top, putting the Dow in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This move will not indicate a change in the trend, but it will be a sign that the buying is greater than the selling at current price levels.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out 24233 on Thursday.
A trade through 23701 will indicate the return of sellers. If this move generate enough downside momentum, we could see an acceleration into 23122 over the near-term.
The intermediate range is 23122 to 25822. Its retracement zone at 24157 to 24477 is the first upside target.
The main range is 26723 to 23122. Its retracement zone at 24923 to 25347 is the primary upside target.
The short-term range is 25535 to 23701. Its retracement zone sits in the middle of the two ranges at 24618 to 24834.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 23963.
Look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 23963. The buying will strengthen on a move over 24157. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a series of retracement levels at 24477, 24618, 24834 and 24923.
A sustained move under 23963 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of today’s intraday low at 23701. This is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.