Gold News: Recession Fears and Dollar Drop Fuel Relentless Rally

Is Gold’s Break Above $3,200 Signaling a Deeper Crisis Unfolding?

Gold surged to record territory on Friday, blasting through the $3,200 barrier to trade at $3,237.96. The precious metal continues to attract heavy buying as traders seek shelter from rising recession risks, soaring bond yields, and a collapsing U.S. dollar.

With no resistance above and support levels well below at $2,970 and $2,956, gold’s momentum is firmly to the upside unless price drops below $3,175.26—a key level that could signal a shift in sentiment.

At 10:47 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3215.08, up $39.71 or +1.25%.

Why Are Investors Ditching Treasuries and the Dollar Together?

A rare dual selloff in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar underscores deepening global anxiety. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.45%, up 45 basis points in just a week—its steepest climb since 2001—while the 30-year yield rose to 4.90%, nearing multi-decade highs.

This isn’t about inflation anymore. Instead, market players are pricing in structural concerns over fiscal stability and long-term debt sustainability. As Allianz’s Michael Krautzberger put it, “confidence is cracking.” The dollar, typically a haven, hit a decade low against the Swiss franc and six-month lows against the yen, as the euro surged to $1.14739.

Is the Trade War Reigniting Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal?

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China have triggered another wave of risk aversion. The White House unexpectedly paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries, but hiked duties on Chinese goods to 145%, provoking a swift 125% response from Beijing. With no diplomatic thaw in sight, traders are bracing for longer-term fallout from what Deutsche Bank has warned could turn into a disorderly decoupling. Business sentiment remains fragile, and global equities have come under pressure.

Can the Fed Cut Rates Fast Enough to Calm Markets?

Economic data has started to reflect strain. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly declined in March, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates as soon as June. Traders are now pricing in a full percentage point of rate reductions by year-end. But even aggressive monetary easing may not be enough to reverse the current flight to safety, as fears over trade policy and fiscal discipline continue to dominate headlines.

Gold Prices Forecast: Can the Rally Extend Toward $3,400?

With global investors dumping U.S. assets and fleeing to safe havens, gold’s rally remains well-supported. Central bank demand, ETF inflows, and a weakening dollar all contribute to a bullish outlook. UBS sees gold climbing further, targeting $3,400–$3,500 in the upside case. As long as uncertainty persists and real yields remain under pressure, the metal is likely to stay in demand. For now, the path of least resistance is up.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.