Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: XAU Struggles Near $2,350; Brace for Potential Correction

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Jun 4, 2024, 07:01 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold (XAU/USD) slipped in early European sessions Tuesday, trading below $2,348 after recovering slightly the previous day.
The US Dollar dropped to a near two-month low, cushioning gold's decline amid Fed rate cut expectations.
Weak US economic data and rate cut speculation are influencing gold, with ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7 for May.

In this article:

Gold

+1.45%

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in negative territory during early European sessions on Tuesday, slipping from the previous day’s recovery gains near the $2,348 level. Overall, the downward pressure on gold is cushioned by expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, driven by disappointing US macro data on Monday.

This has led to the US Dollar (USD) dropping to a near two-month low, providing a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

US Economic Data and Rate Cut Speculation

Gold prices are influenced by recent US economic data. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a steady Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 2.7% annually, with the core gauge rising by 2.8%.

Additionally, the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in May, marking the second consecutive month of contraction.

This led to a drop in US Treasury bond yields and pushed the USD to its lowest level since April 10. The weak economic indicators have heightened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment

Persistent geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, continue to support the near-term positive outlook for gold prices. The US is attempting to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which could lead to more stable conditions.

However, traders are cautious, refraining from strong bullish bets on gold due to the optimism surrounding these developments.

Upcoming US and Global Economic Data

Traders are also awaiting significant US economic data, including JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders data on Tuesday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Additionally, key central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday will likely influence gold prices.

Rate cuts by these central banks are expected to benefit gold, given the lower opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets in a low-rate environment.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) may face continued downward pressure near $2,350, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2348.250, down by 0.10%. The pivot point at $2354.37 is crucial, acting as a benchmark for potential movements. Immediate resistance levels are at $2374.92, $2392.12, and $2405.74, suggesting possible upward targets.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $2333.82, $2314.95, and $2295.84.

Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2349.08 and the 200-day EMA at $2336.66. The outlook remains bearish below $2355, but a break above this level could signal a bullish trend shift.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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