Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Bull Run Extends as Institutional Demand and Tariff Fears Surge

Gold Breaks Records as Tariff Fears and Institutional Demand Drive Buying

Gold extended its bullish run into Monday, surging to a fresh all-time high of $3,128.14 per ounce. The rally continues to be underpinned by inflation concerns, aggressive institutional flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions. With no technical resistance in sight, the metal remains firmly in a “buy strength” and “buy dips” mode, reinforcing a strong uptrend structure.

At 11:01 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3117.69, up $32.34 or +1.05%.

Tariff Anxiety Fuels Safe-Haven Demand

Markets are bracing for the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, with traders pricing in a more aggressive U.S. trade posture. President Trump is expected to unveil reciprocal tariffs targeting persistent trade imbalances, while a blanket 25% auto tariff is already set to take effect April 3.

The threat of retaliatory measures and global supply disruptions has reignited fears of inflation and slowing growth—conditions that have historically propelled gold higher. Gold’s move comes as the MSCI World Index fell 1.2%, reflecting a rotation out of risk assets and into safe-haven exposure.

Institutional Buying Expands Beyond Central Banks

China’s top four insurers, managing a combined ¥13 trillion in assets, have launched a gold buying pilot program with projected inflows equivalent to 183 tonnes. That represents nearly half of last year’s global central bank purchases.

This strategic shift reflects a deeper institutional pivot toward gold as both an inflation hedge and geopolitical risk offset. Combined with steady ETF demand and ongoing central bank accumulation, this institutional wave is providing strong structural support for the rally.

Technical Setup Signals Continued Strength

Technically, the trend remains bullish. Gold is holding well above key support at $3063.80, with the main bottom at $2999.46 and 50-day moving average rising to $2910.70. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 77, indicating overbought conditions, but momentum remains intact. So far, traders have largely ignored stretched readings as geopolitical and policy risks keep inflows elevated.

Physical Demand Softens, but Momentum Rules

While retail demand has eased in Asia—particularly in India, where high prices and year-end account closures slowed buying—the broader rally remains driven by paper markets and institutional positioning. Demand from ETFs and strategic buyers continues to offset the slowdown in physical markets.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Holds Above $3,000

With tariff risks escalating, institutional demand expanding, and inflation fears re-emerging, gold’s upside bias remains firm. The market structure favors a continuation higher, barring any sharp reversal in U.S. trade policy or surprise tightening by the Fed.

As long as prices hold above $3,000, the path remains open for further gains, especially if the April 2 policy announcement reinforces the inflationary backdrop. The $3,500 target floated by analysts no longer seems out of reach in this environment.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.