Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Holding Just Below Record High as Traders Await Tariff News

Gold Prices Hold Near Record High Ahead of Trump Tariff Announcement

Gold prices are consolidating just below record levels on Tuesday, with spot bullion holding firm above $3,140 as traders await critical policy developments out of Washington. The metal surged to an all-time high of $3,148.88 earlier in the week, and a breakout above $3,149.09 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend, with no immediate resistance above.

At 12:16 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3119.31, up $4.835 or +0.16%.

Tariff Risks Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Investors are positioning cautiously ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated announcement of new tariffs at 2000 GMT, an event he has promoted as “Liberation Day.” Markets fear that broad-based tariffs on multiple countries could exacerbate trade tensions, potentially dragging on global growth.

Gold, traditionally a hedge during times of economic and geopolitical stress, has gained over $400 since Trump took office, underscoring its role as a safe-haven asset. Exinity Group’s Han Tan noted that if the new tariff measures raise stagflation or recession fears, gold could break higher once again.

Technical Levels Define Near-Term Outlook

From a technical perspective, the minor range between $2,999.46 and $3,149.09 puts the pivot at $3,074.28. That level serves as the first downside target if momentum stalls. A break below $2,999.46 would shift the near-term trend lower, potentially triggering a pullback toward the 50-day moving average at $2,925.44, which remains major support.

Macro Data and Fed Policy in Focus

Traders are also watching closely for upcoming U.S. economic data. The ADP private payroll report and Friday’s non-farm payrolls release could provide fresh signals on labor market strength and influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move.

The Institute for Supply Management’s latest manufacturing survey revealed contraction in March, adding to concerns about economic cooling. UBS maintains a $3,200/oz base case for gold, but sees potential for $3,500/oz if economic conditions deteriorate further.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

With geopolitical uncertainty elevated and economic data flashing warning signs, gold remains in a favorable position. A confirmed breakout above $3,149.09 would open the door for further gains, while only a decisive break below $2,999.46 would suggest a deeper correction. Until the Fed signals a hawkish turn, the bullish case for gold prices remains well-supported.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.