Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bullion Gains on 70% Fed Cut Odds, Tariff Pressure

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) rose sharply during the Asian session on Thursday, reaching $3,126.67, as global markets reacted to renewed trade tensions. The U.S. administration’s imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, along with targeted duties on key partners, has amplified concerns over slowing economic growth and global supply chain instability.

As equities sold off, gold’s traditional role as a defensive asset came back into focus. “The move into gold reflects a deeper unease about the policy environment and future demand,” noted a commodities strategist in Singapore.

Silver Trails Behind as Industrial Pressure Mounts

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $33.28, having touched a session low of $33.07. Despite gold’s upward momentum, silver’s response has been more restrained, weighed down by its industrial use case.

With growth forecasts under pressure, traders remain cautious on silver exposure. The metal continues to trade below the key pivot of $33.49, limiting upside prospects in the near term.

Rate Cut Odds Rise as Treasury Yields Slide

Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, according to CME FedWatch. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.15%, driven by fears that tariff-driven weakness could prompt the Fed to act.

A weaker U.S. dollar—pressured by falling yields—has further supported gold, making it more attractive to non-dollar holders.

Jobs Data Overlooked as Eyes Turn to NFP

The ADP employment report surprised to the upside with 155,000 jobs added, exceeding the 105,000 forecast. However, markets shrugged it off, focusing instead on upcoming data. Weekly jobless claims, ISM Services PMI, and especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report are now in focus as traders weigh how deeply tariffs could impact the broader economy.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $3,116 amid rising Fed cut bets and trade risks. Silver faces pressure below $33.49, with momentum tilted bearish unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,126.67, down 0.25%, but still sitting comfortably above its key pivot at $3,116.06. That level’s important—not just because it aligns with the 50 EMA at $3,111.61, but also because it’s the base of a broader upward channel that’s been quietly supporting this bullish trend.

As long as price stays within that rising structure, buyers remain in control. Immediate resistance stands at $3,178.27, followed by $3,212.62 if momentum picks up.

On the downside, a break below $3,116 could trigger a sharper correction toward $3,085.69 or even $3,054.83. With the 200 EMA well below at $3,041.19, there’s still a technical cushion—just not one you’d want to test without reason.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $33.16, down 2.15%, after breaking below a key upward trendline that had supported prices for much of the recent rally. The breach below the $33.49 pivot—now acting as resistance—has shifted the tone decidedly bearish. Price is also trading under both the 50 EMA ($33.82) and 200 EMA ($33.52), reinforcing downward pressure.

Immediate support sits at $32.66, followed by a more significant level at $32.20, which could attract buyers if selling intensifies. To flip the outlook back to bullish, silver would need to reclaim $33.49 and stabilize above $34.16.

For now, the breakdown from trendline support suggests sellers have the upper hand, and rallies may face stiff resistance in the short term.