Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ceasefire Talks & Strong Dollar; More Selling?

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Mar 22, 2024, 09:57 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gaza ceasefire talks and stronger dollar pressure oil prices, despite recent market recovery efforts.
Natural Gas (NG) shows potential for growth, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish trend above $1.8272.
Brent and WTI Oil face downward pressure, with key resistance levels challenging short-term price recovery.

In this article:

Natural Gas

+0.27%

WTI Oil

-1.44%

Brent Oil

-1.34%

Market Overview

Oil prices declined due to potential Gaza ceasefire talks led by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, aiming to ease Middle East tensions. A stronger dollar and decreased U.S. gasoline demand further pressured prices, despite oil’s slight recovery last week.

The ceasefire discussions, alongside economic indicators like the drop in U.S. gasoline demand and global oil stock reductions, suggest mixed influences on the oil market.

The strengthening dollar, making oil more costly for foreign currency holders, could impact oil and natural gas forecasts by reducing demand. These developments present a complex backdrop for energy markets, balancing geopolitical ease against economic pressures.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

On March 22, Natural Gas (NG) witnessed a modest increase, climbing by 0.30% to $1.8330. This uptick positions NG slightly above its pivot point of $1.8272, signaling potential for further upward movement. Resistance levels are identified at $1.9013, $1.9408, and $2.0067, with support found at lower thresholds of $1.7842, $1.7377, and $1.6795.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.8284 closely aligns with the current price, whereas the 200-Day EMA at $1.9092 sets a higher benchmark for bullish momentum.

Given these dynamics, NG’s market outlook is bullish above the pivot point of $1.8272, yet a drop below this critical level could precipitate a significant selling trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Technical analysis for US Oil (USOIL) on today’s trading session shows a minor decline of 0.36%, with the price at $80.46. Positioned below its pivot point of $81.21, USOIL faces immediate resistance levels at $81.87, $82.93, and $83.87. Conversely, support levels are established at $79.39, $78.46, and $77.35.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $80.72, slightly above the current price, indicating a tight market. The 200-Day EMA at $78.54, however, suggests underlying strength.

The overall market sentiment for USOIL is bearish below $81.21, but surpassing this level could indicate a shift towards a more bullish outlook.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI brent Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) registers a decline of 0.43%, positioning the price at $85.17. This movement situates UKOIL below its pivot point of $85.59, indicating potential downward momentum. Resistance levels are observed at $86.50, $87.23, and $87.94, suggesting areas of future contention for price advances.

Support levels are marked at $84.57, $83.89, and $83.20, offering possible stabilization points for price retractions.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85.24 and the 200-Day EMA at $83.09 provide critical insights into the market’s direction, hinting at a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $85.59. However, surpassing this threshold could imply a shift to a more bullish outlook.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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