Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russian Cuts Push Q1 Gains, Oil on a Rise

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: Apr 1, 2024, 10:07 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil Rally Amid Russian Cuts: Anticipated reductions in Russian output fuel robust Q1 gains, easing global surplus fears.
OPEC+ Strategy Affects Prices: Production curbs by OPEC+ members, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, drive oil market stability and price surge.
Geopolitical Tensions Influence Market: Middle East conflicts and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are key to sustaining current oil and natural gas price trends.

In this article:

Natural Gas

+0.27%

WTI Oil

-1.44%

Brent Oil

-1.34%

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a significant increase during the last week, ending the first quarter with robust gains due to anticipated reductions in Russian output, which mitigated concerns over a potential global supply surplus.

The price surge in USOIL and UKOIL was driven by continued production curbs by OPEC+ members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting supply stability.

This scenario is likely to influence the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, with expectations leaning towards maintaining the current output policy, potentially impacting future oil and natural gas market forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) exhibits a slight downturn, trading at $1.797, down 0.39%. The pivotal point at $1.79920 will determine its near-term direction. Resistance levels at $1.84390, $1.87590, and $1.91150 mark potential upward barriers, while support at $1.76480, $1.72080, and $1.67930 will test its stability.

The 50 EMA at $1.7991 and 200 EMA at $1.8785 suggest a cautious market sentiment. Currently, the trend for Natural Gas is bearish below $1.79920, but crossing this threshold could tilt the bias towards a bullish outlook.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL continues to exhibit strength, trading at $83.46, marking a 0.45% increase. The pivot point stands at $82.90, shaping the short-term market outlook. Key resistance levels are identified at $83.76, $84.53, and $85.26, which if surpassed, could signal further bullish momentum.

Support levels are established at $82.31, $81.48, and $80.40, offering potential bounce points during pullbacks. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $81.52 and $79.37, respectively, underpin the upward trend.

With the market leaning bullish above $82.90, USOIL’s price trajectory seems poised for growth, barring a dip below the pivot that could precipitate a bearish shift.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL‘s market stance remains robust, with a current trading price of $87.27, reflecting a 0.38% increase. The pivotal point at $86.55 delineates the market sentiment, with resistance levels at $87.29, $88.14, and $89.00 dictating potential upward momentum.

On the flip side, support is established at $85.61, $84.69, and $83.94, crucial for mitigating declines. The 50-day EMA at $85.72 and the 200-day EMA at $83.80 solidify the upward trend.

Predominantly, UKOIL exhibits a bullish trend above $86.55, yet a fall below this pivot could signal a bearish reversal.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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