Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russian Cuts Push Q1 Gains, Oil on a Rise

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Updated: Apr 1, 2024, 10:07 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil Rally Amid Russian Cuts: Anticipated reductions in Russian output fuel robust Q1 gains, easing global surplus fears.
OPEC+ Strategy Affects Prices: Production curbs by OPEC+ members, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, drive oil market stability and price surge.
Geopolitical Tensions Influence Market: Middle East conflicts and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are key to sustaining current oil and natural gas price trends.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russian Cuts Push Q1 Gains, Oil on a Rise

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a significant increase during the last week, ending the first quarter with robust gains due to anticipated reductions in Russian output, which mitigated concerns over a potential global supply surplus.

The price surge in USOIL and UKOIL was driven by continued production curbs by OPEC+ members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting supply stability.

This scenario is likely to influence the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, with expectations leaning towards maintaining the current output policy, potentially impacting future oil and natural gas market forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) exhibits a slight downturn, trading at $1.797, down 0.39%. The pivotal point at $1.79920 will determine its near-term direction. Resistance levels at $1.84390, $1.87590, and $1.91150 mark potential upward barriers, while support at $1.76480, $1.72080, and $1.67930 will test its stability.

The 50 EMA at $1.7991 and 200 EMA at $1.8785 suggest a cautious market sentiment. Currently, the trend for Natural Gas is bearish below $1.79920, but crossing this threshold could tilt the bias towards a bullish outlook.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL continues to exhibit strength, trading at $83.46, marking a 0.45% increase. The pivot point stands at $82.90, shaping the short-term market outlook. Key resistance levels are identified at $83.76, $84.53, and $85.26, which if surpassed, could signal further bullish momentum.

Support levels are established at $82.31, $81.48, and $80.40, offering potential bounce points during pullbacks. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $81.52 and $79.37, respectively, underpin the upward trend.

With the market leaning bullish above $82.90, USOIL’s price trajectory seems poised for growth, barring a dip below the pivot that could precipitate a bearish shift.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL‘s market stance remains robust, with a current trading price of $87.27, reflecting a 0.38% increase. The pivotal point at $86.55 delineates the market sentiment, with resistance levels at $87.29, $88.14, and $89.00 dictating potential upward momentum.

On the flip side, support is established at $85.61, $84.69, and $83.94, crucial for mitigating declines. The 50-day EMA at $85.72 and the 200-day EMA at $83.80 solidify the upward trend.

Predominantly, UKOIL exhibits a bullish trend above $86.55, yet a fall below this pivot could signal a bearish reversal.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.