Natural Gas News: Can Futures Rebound Today with a Decisive Break Above $3.329?

What’s Driving Natural Gas Prices Today?

U.S. natural gas futures are edging higher on Monday, attempting to recover from Friday’s steep sell-off. Traders suggest the pullback was overdone, with price action hovering near pivotal technical levels that could define the short-term trend.

At 13:14 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.345, up $0.216 or +6.90%.

What Key Levels Are Traders Watching?

Friday’s sell-off began near the October 4 top at $3.573, with the rally stalling just below at $3.563. Support has emerged within the $3.044 to $3.168 zone, with selling halting at $3.071, near the lower boundary. This area aligns with the 50-day moving average ($3.061), reinforcing its importance as a support cluster alongside $3.044.

Additionally, prices are fluctuating around the 200-day moving average at $3.329. This level may act as a key pivot, with sustained movement above signaling bullish momentum, while a break below could invite further downside pressure.

How Is Weather Influencing Demand?

Weather models from NatGasWeather project colder systems advancing into the Northern Rockies and Midwest early this week, followed by broader U.S. coverage of frosty conditions late in the week. Highs are forecasted in the 10s-30s, with lows plunging to -10s to 20s.

While natural gas demand is expected to remain moderate to low through early next week, it is anticipated to surge thereafter. Forecasts for the November 28 to December 5 period indicate well-above-average heating degree days (HDDs), suggesting much stronger demand. However, warmer overnight updates to weather data caused last Friday’s sell-off, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to forecast adjustments.

Where Could the Market Be Headed Next?

The near-term outlook for natural gas remains mixed. Bulls are encouraged by colder weather forecasts, which could sustain demand into early December. However, the market must overcome resistance at $3.329 and the October 4 highs to maintain upward momentum. Conversely, failure to hold key support near $3.061 could open the door to bearish moves, particularly if weather data trends warmer.

Traders should watch for sustained moves above the 200-day moving average for bullish confirmation, while keeping an eye on weather-driven demand changes that may steer short-term sentiment.

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